The "surprisingly popular" method (SP) of aggregating individual judgments has shown promise in overcoming a weakness of other crowdsourcing methods--situations in which the majority is incorrect. This method relies on participants' estimates of other participants' judgments; when an option is chosen more often than the average…

Objective: This study examines how accurately a small set of short-term academic indicators can approximate long-term outcomes of community college students so that decision-makers can take informed actions based on those indicators to evaluate the current progress of large-scale reform efforts on long-term outcomes, which in practice will not be…

During the transition period between the use of exclusively old SAT® scores and the use of exclusively new SAT scores, college admission offices will be receiving both types of scores from students. Making an admission decision based on new SAT scores can be challenging at first because institutions have methods, procedures, and models based on…

With large student enrollment, MOOC instructors face the unique challenge in deciding when to intervene in forum discussions with their limited bandwidth. We study this problem of "instructor intervention." Using a large sample of forum data culled from 61 courses, we design a binary classifier to predict whether an instructor should…

The purpose of this study is to exam in-depth, the Comprehensive, Powerful, Academic Database (CPAD), a data decision-making tool that determines and identifies students at-risk of dropping out of school, and how the CPAD assists administrators and teachers at an elementary campus to monitor progress, curriculum, and performance to improve student…

Predicting the future is now in the hands of K12 administrators. While for years districts have collected thousands of pieces of student data, educators have been using them only for data-driven decision-making or formative assessments, which give a "rear-view" perspective only. Now, using predictive analysis--the pulling together of data over…

Leveraging the knowledge of an organization is an ongoing challenge that has given rise to the field of knowledge management. Yet, despite spending enormous sums of organizational resources on Information Technology (IT) systems, executives recognize there is much more knowledge to harvest. Prediction markets are emerging as one tool to help…

Community colleges continue to experience growth in online courses. This growth reflects the need to increase the numbers of students who complete certificates or degrees. Retaining online students, not to mention assuring their success, is a challenge that must be addressed through practical institutional responses. By leveraging existing student…

Predictions and forecasts are the most critical features of rational planning as well as the most vulnerable to inaccuracy. Because plans are only as good as their forecasts, current planning procedures could be improved by greater forecasting accuracy. Economic factors explain and predict more than any other set of factors, making economic…

The present study is a continuation of a series of studies dealing with predictions of future daily behaviors. Because of the finite nature of time, people have to make choices among activities, bearing in mind the duration of such activities. The dimension of "discretion", which deals specifically with the duration of time a person spends on an…

The study tests the appropriateness of multiplicative versus additive expectancy-valency models for grouping motivational force decisions of 82 undergraduate students. Arguments are offered favoring a non-nested regression models analysis over a traditional hierarchical analysis of nested regression models. Discriminant analysis indicated one of…

The National Center for Education Statistics supported this conference as a first step in a dialogue among forecasters to benefit all in the field. Fifty forecasters representing 20 different federal agencies attended the day-long session. Objectives of the conference include: (1) to bring forecasters together for a forum to share information on…

This bibliography surveys the literature in the developing field of forecasting, which incorporates policy-formation, planning, decision-making, and the policy sciences in general. Entries are organized into five separate sections. The first section, Alternative Futures, surveys the general literature on the future, including many historical…

This package introduces college students to the elements of the Prince System, a widely used system for making political forecasts and developing political strategies. Designed to be completed in two to three weeks, the two exercises enable students to (1) identify political issues that the Prince System can help them understand, (2) determine the…

This package introduces college students to the kind of analysis that multinational corporations undertake to assess risks to their business operations due to political and economic conditions. Designed to be completed in 3 weeks, the four exercises enable students to (1) identify the major sources of political risk; (2) determine what social,…