Two sophisticated--autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), straight-line regression--and two naive--simple average, monthly average--forecasting techniques were used to forecast monthly circulation totals of 34 public libraries. Comparisons of forecasts and actual totals revealed that ARIMA and monthly average methods had smallest mean…

Examines a statistical model in which the users of an online system continually update their estimated probability of success, and quit or continue the search according to the expected utility of each action. The implications for search strategies are discussed. (Author/EM)

The Index of Personality Characteristics (IPC) and the Social Reasoning subtest of the British Ability Scales were administered to 36 students with behavior disorders (BD) and 37 nonexceptional students in grades 3-7. Results indicated that the IPC composite score in combination with the Social Reasoning subtest accurately predicted BD…

At prekindergarten screening, 84 children were evaluated with the Peabody Picture Vocabulary Test-Revised (PPVT-R) and the Developmental Test of Visual-Motor Integration. Two years later, teachers' ratings of the students (now in first grade) on reading performance indicated that students with poor sight-word vocabularies performed lower on the…

Reports a study that examined the influence of authoritarianism on the formation of behavioral intentions by female college students. High authoritarians took subjective norms less into account relative to low authoritarians, providing support for the theory that personal and subjective norms can be distinguished empirically. (LS)

Four methods were used to forecast monthly circulation totals in 15 midwestern academic libraries: dummy time-series regression, lagged time-series regression, simple average (straight-line forecasting), monthly average (naive forecasting). In tests of forecasting accuracy, dummy regression method and monthly mean method exhibited smallest average…

Stepwise discriminant analysis coupled with logit regression analysis of freshmen data from Brandon University (Manitoba) indicated that six tested variables drawn from research on university dropouts were useful in predicting attrition: student status, residence, financial sources, distance from home town, goal fulfillment, and satisfaction with…

Describes a class experiment illustrating students' illusions about their own mortality (often referred to as "unique invulnerability"). The students received information, culled from actuarial tables, concerning age and mortality rates. The students consistently overestimated their own age of death even when told they would do so. (MJP)

Discusses importance of academic planning and describes a model-based decision support system for academic units in a university hierarchy. This system integrates macro-level decisions by examining individual departments' budgets to determine future plans. Quantitative techniques for forecasting change are reviewed, including use of spreadsheet…

This study examined the predictive factors of demand for degrees and academic performance at the University of the Basque Country (Spain). The study followed two cohorts of university students from secondary education to the completion of the third year of higher education. The data analyzed included secondary school qualifications, selectivity…

Three construct scores (academic skills, parent discipline, and parent involvement) and 2 discrete code category measures (positive responses and total positive behavior) were recorded for 39 antisocial and 41 at-risk grade-4 boys. Five resulting regression prediction models produced strong effects in accounting for school achievement, adjustment,…