Four approaches to prediction of learning success are described and discussed: the two-point model and the technique of multiple regression; the learning test model; the contingency model and the technique of time-series analysis; and the causally defined multipoint model and the technique of path analysis. (BW)

School effectiveness indices (SEIs) based on residuals from regressing test performance in reading and mathematics onto prior-year test performance and a socioeconomic status measure (percentage eligible for a subsidized lunch program) were obtained for two consecutive years for 431 South Carolina elementary schools. The analysis involved school…