Develops the theory for a stochastic model for the citation process in the presence of obsolescence to predict the future citation pattern of individual papers in a collection. Shows that the expected number of future citations is a linear function of the current number, interpreted as an example of a success-breeds-success phenomenon. (Author/LRW)

Criteria were developed for deciding the fraction of course attendance time that students should spend on a computer-assisted instruction (CAI) course in order to maximize the average final achievement of the class, subject to constraints on the probability of individual student failure and on the available console capacity. The major elements of…

Evaluation of a model of the dynamics of cumulative achievement, used to develop an instrument for predicting scholastic achievement, suggests that, while the instrumentation needs to be improved, reliability of the model-based approach warrants further work. (MJB)

Potchefstroom University for Christian Higher Education evaluated the usefulness of a model created to predict the success of distance education course facilitators. The model identified eight key attributes based on performance measures from the 1999 Facilitator Customer Service Survey. The evaluation accredited the model while suggesting…

The Landscape Model of text comprehension was extended to the comprehension of audiovisual discourse from text and video TV news stories. Concepts from the story were coded for activation after each sequence, creating a matrix of activations that was reduced to a vector of the degree of total activation for each concept. In Study 1, the degree…

Compares the accuracy of various student test score projection techniques, including idiographic analysis, standard score method, regression analysis, and a differential equation growth model. Concludes with an overview of the problems of projecting student test scores and suggests a stochastic procedure based on Bayesian analysis for educational…

A model for predicting student credit hours (SCH) over a 2-year period was developed at the University of South Florida. A major application of the model would be to estimate the expected loss of upper-level SCH that would occur as a result of reduced lower-level enrollment. Attention was focused on the long-range effect of lower-level enrollment…

The aim of this research was to increase understanding of the relationship between family variables and measures of child welfare. Conclusions were that welfare status is not explained by the use of individual measures on their own. (Author)

STATISTICAL MODELS WERE USED TO STUDY THE NATURE OF HIGH SCHOOL "FAILURES". THE STUDY (1) COMPARED THE DEGREE TO WHICH FAILURE COULD BE PREDICTED BY MULTIVARIABLE AND CONFIGURAL MODELS AND (2) CONSTRUCTED SCALES BY MEANS OF TRADITIONAL PSYCHOMETRIC ITEM ANALYSIS AND CROSS-VALIDATION AND BY MEANS OF STRUCTURAL ITEM ANALYSIS. THE SAMPLE…

The document presents a forecast model of the future Air Force applicant pool. By forecasting applicants' quality (means and standard deviations of aptitude scores) and quantity (total number of applicants), a potential enlistee could be compared to the forecasted pool. The data used to develop the model consisted of means, standard deviation, and…

Describes a statistical model that can predict, throughout the fiscal year, the amount of money that will be spent on firm orders against a given fund, thereby predicting the number of orders that must still be placed to totally spend but not overspend that fund. Data tables are included. (Author/JD)

Stepwise multiple regression was used to develop salary prediction equations, one from each of two faculty samples used most frequently used in this type of research. An analysis of the model found that on average women were paid significantly less than men. (RB)

Utilizing individual data drawn from the Israel labor mobility survey and assigning workers to primary and secondary sectors on the basis of occupational prestige scores, earnings functions are estimated and compared for the two sectors. Results strongly suggest that the dual labor market hypothesis may be relevant for Israel. (Author/CT)

Examined the structure of occupations based on judgments of similarity, compared this structure with those derived from subjects' (N=26) responses to interest inventories, and compared the circular and hierarchical models. Results indicated that a combination of the circular and hierarchical models is preferable to either model alone. (LLL)