Advances in cognitive research increase the need for assessment that can address the processes and the strategies by which persons solve problems. Several psychometric models have been introduced to handle claims cast in information-processing terms, explicitly modeling performance in terms of theory-based predictions of performance. Cognitively…

Recent developments in cognitive psychology suggest models for knowledge and learning that often fall outside the realm of standard test theory. This paper concerns probability-based inference in terms of such models. The essential idea is to define a space of "student models"--simplified characterizations of students' knowledge, skill,…

Effects of blind guessing on the success of passing true-false and multiple-choice tests are investigated under a stochastic binomial model. Critical values of guessing are thresholds which signify when the effect of guessing is negligible. By checking a table of critical values assembled in this paper, one can make a decision with 95% confidence…

Some applications of Bayesian decision theory to intelligent tutoring systems are considered. How the problem of adapting the appropriate amount of instruction to the changing nature of a student's capabilities during the learning process can be situated in the general framework of Bayesian decision theory is discussed in the context of the…

This article compares three models that have been the foundation for approaches to the analysis of statistical significance in early childhood research--the Fisherian and the Neyman-Pearson models (both considered "classical" approaches), and the Bayesian model. The article concludes that all three models have a place in the analysis of research…

This paper defines Bayesian network models and examines their applications to IRT-based cognitive diagnostic modeling. These models are especially suited to building inference engines designed to be synchronous with the finer grained student models that arise in skills diagnostic assessment. Aspects of the theory and use of Bayesian network models…

To reveal what is being learned during the gaming experience, this report proposes an approach for embedding assessments in immersive games, drawing on recent advances in assessment design. Key to this approach are formative assessment to guide instructional experiences and evidence-centered design to systematically analyze the assessment argument…

The use of subjective probability as a theoretical model for enrollment forecasting is proposed, and the results of an application of subjective probability to enrollment forecasting at the University of Toledo are reported. Subjective probability can be used as an enrollment forecasting technique for both headcount and full-time equivalent using…

(See also TM 501 087, TM 501 089 and TM 501 090.)

Several models of information integration are developed and analyzed in the context of a prototypical pattern-recognition task. Evaluation, integration, and decision-making processes are specified for each. Simulations and predictions are carried out to provide a measure of identifiability or extent to which they can be distinguished from one…

Investigated model for reducing time for administration of Myers-Briggs Type Indicator (MBTI) using real-data simulation of Bayesian scaling in computerized adaptive administration. Findings from simulation study using data from 127 undergraduates are strongly supportive of use of Bayesian scaled computerized adaptive administration of MBTI.…

The precision of the group-based item-response theory (IRT) model applied to school ability estimation is described, assuming use of Bayesian estimation with precision represented by the standard deviation of the posterior distribution. Similarities with and differences between the school-based model and the individual-level IRT are explored. (SLD)

This paper presents the development of the fusion model skills diagnosis system (fusion model system), which can help integrate standardized testing into the learning process with both skills-level examinee parameters for modeling examinee skill mastery and skills-level item parameters, giving information about the diagnostic power of the test.…

Focuses on three management tools--the Delphi technique, Bayesian statistics, and Monte Carlo simulation--in order to simulate a problem-solving/decision-making situation with which an educational administrator may be faced. (Author)

Two psychometric models are presented for evaluating the difficulty of the distractors in multiple-choice items. They are based on the criterion of rising distractor selection ratios, which facilitates interpretation of the subject and item parameters. Statistical inferential tools are developed in a Bayesian framework: modal a posteriori…