This paper provides a history of ETS's role in developing assessment instruments and psychometric procedures for measuring change in large-scale national assessments funded by the Longitudinal Studies branch of the National Center for Education Statistics. It documents the innovations developed during more than 30 years of working with…

The distinction between verbatim and gist memory traces has furthered the understanding of numerous phenomena in various fields, such as false memory research, research on reasoning and decision making, and cognitive development. To measure verbatim and gist memory empirically, an experimental paradigm and multinomial measurement model has been…

This article demonstrates the potential of using hierarchical Bayesian methods to relate models and data in the cognitive sciences. This is done using a worked example that considers an existing model of category representation, the Varying Abstraction Model (VAM), which attempts to infer the representations people use from their behavior in…

Purpose: The development of adaptable and intelligent educational systems is widely considered one of the great challenges in scientific research. Among key elements for building advanced training systems, an important role is played by methodologies chosen for knowledge representation. In this scenario, the introduction of ontology formalism can…

We report a new study testing our proposal that word learning may be best explained as an approximate form of Bayesian inference (Xu & Tenenbaum, in press). Children are capable of learning word meanings across a wide range of communicative contexts. In different contexts, learners may encounter different sampling processes generating the examples…

Griffiths and Tenenbaum (2006) asked individuals to make predictions about the duration or extent of everyday events (e.g., cake baking times), and reported that predictions were optimal, employing Bayesian inference based on veridical prior distributions. Although the predictions conformed strikingly to statistics of the world, they reflect…

Fit of the model to the data is important if the benefits of item response theory (IRT) are to be obtained. In this study, the authors compared model selection results using the likelihood ratio test, two information-based criteria, and two Bayesian methods. An example illustrated the potential for inconsistency in model selection depending on…

In organizational studies involving multiple levels, the association between a covariate and an outcome often differs at different levels of aggregation, giving rise to widespread interest in "contextual effects models." Such models partition the regression into within- and between-cluster components. The conventional approach uses each…

Model-based cluster analysis is a new clustering procedure to investigate population heterogeneity utilizing finite mixture multivariate normal densities. It is an inferentially based, statistically principled procedure that allows comparison of nonnested models using the Bayesian information criterion to compare multiple models and identify the…

Inductive learning is impossible without overhypotheses, or constraints on the hypotheses considered by the learner. Some of these overhypotheses must be innate, but we suggest that hierarchical Bayesian models can help to explain how the rest are acquired. To illustrate this claim, we develop models that acquire two kinds of…

Bayesian methods for analyzing longitudinal data in social and behavioral research are recommended for their ability to incorporate prior information in estimating simple and complex models. We first summarize the basics of Bayesian methods before presenting an empirical example in which we fit a latent basis growth curve model to achievement data…

The remarkable successes of the physical sciences have been built on highly general quantitative laws, which serve as the basis for understanding an enormous variety of specific physical systems. How far is it possible to construct universal principles in the cognitive sciences, in terms of which specific aspects of perception, memory, or decision…

The 13th iteration of the International Conference on Educational Data Mining (EDM 2020) was originally arranged to take place in Ifrane, Morocco. Due to the SARS-CoV-2 (coronavirus) epidemic, EDM 2020, as well as most other academic conferences in 2020, had to be changed to a purely online format. To facilitate efficient transmission of…

How children go about learning the general regularities that govern language, as well as keeping track of the exceptions to them, remains one of the challenging open questions in the cognitive science of language. Computational modeling is an important methodology in research aimed at addressing this issue. We must determine appropriate learning…

The authors present a reconciliation of 3 distinct ways in which the research literature has defined overconfidence: (a) overestimation of one's actual performance, (b) overplacement of one's performance relative to others, and (c) excessive precision in one's beliefs. Experimental evidence shows that reversals of the first 2 (apparent…