Focuses on three management tools--the Delphi technique, Bayesian statistics, and Monte Carlo simulation--in order to simulate a problem-solving/decision-making situation with which an educational administrator may be faced. (Author)

The construction cost estimate, often expressed as an absolute cost, leads to misunderstanding between client, designers, and builders. If estimates are to be used as adequate cost indicators, their probabilistic nature must be recognized and they must be expressed not as absolute numbers but in terms of a number with some indication of the…

Monitoring school performance increasingly uses sophisticated analytical techniques. This document investigates whether one such method, hierarchical growth modeling, yields consistent school performance results when different metrics are used as the outcome variable. It is examined as to whether statistical and substantive inferences are altered…

Describes a dry- lab" experiment for the college freshman laboratory, in which the essential features of Browian motion are given principles, using the Monte Carlo technique. Calculations principles, using the Monte Carlo technique. Calculations are carried out by a computation sheme based on computer language. Bibliography. (LC)

This paper focuses on mixtures of two binomials with one known success parameter. It is shown how moment estimators can be obtained for the remaining unknown parameters of such mixtures, and results are presented from a Monte Carlo study carried out to explore the statistical properties of these estimators. (PN)

The extent to which a scale score generalizes to a latent variable common to all of the scale's indicators is indexed by the scale's general factor saturation. Seven techniques for estimating this parameter--omega[hierarchical] (omega[subscript h])--are compared in a series of simulated data sets. Primary comparisons were based on 160 artificial…

The authors present a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) parameter estimation procedure for the generalized graded unfolding model (GGUM) and compare it to the marginal maximum likelihood (MML) approach implemented in the GGUM2000 computer program, using simulated and real personality data. In the simulation study, test length, number of response…

One conceptualization of meta-analysis is that studies within the meta-analysis are sampled from populations with mean effect sizes that vary (random-effects models). The consequences of not applying such models and the comparison of different methods have been hotly debated. A Monte Carlo study compared the efficacy of Hedges and Vevea's…

A model of Brownian motion is discussed which includes viscosity effects. The model lends itself to Monte Carlo simulation and thus is suitable for an elementary physics laboratory experiment. (BB)

This article describes a monte carlo computer simulation of affirmative action employment policies. The counterintuitive results of the model are explained through a thought device involving urns and marbles. States that such model simulations have implications for social policy. (BSR)

The challenges of modeling students' performance in simulation-based assessments include accounting for multiple aspects of knowledge and skill that arise in different situations and the conditional dependencies among multiple aspects of performance in a complex assessment. This paper describes a Bayesian approach to modeling and estimating…

The randomized response (RR) technique is often used to obtain answers on sensitive questions. A new method is developed to measure latent variables using the RR technique because direct questioning leads to biased results. Within the RR technique is the probability of the true response modeled by an item response theory (IRT) model. The RR…

This study compares the classification accuracy of linear discriminant analysis (LDA), quadratic discriminant analysis (QDA), logistic regression (LR), and classification and regression trees (CART) under a variety of data conditions. Past research has generally found comparable performance of LDA and LR, with relatively less research on QDA and…

The recovery of weak factors has been extensively studied in the context of exploratory factor analysis. This article presents the results of a Monte Carlo simulation study of recovery of weak factor loadings in confirmatory factor analysis under conditions of estimation method (maximum likelihood vs. unweighted least squares), sample size,…

This study compares the ability of the multiple indicators, multiple causes (MIMIC) confirmatory factor analysis model to correctly identify cases of differential item functioning (DIF) with more established methods. Although the MIMIC model might have application in identifying DIF for multiple grouping variables, there has been little…