Although immediacy is one of the necessary criteria to show strong evidence of a causal relation in SCDs, no inferential statistical tool is currently used to demonstrate it. We propose a Bayesian unknown change-point model to investigate and quantify immediacy in SCD analysis. Unlike visual analysis that considers only 3-5 observations in…

In network meta-analysis, the use of fixed baseline treatment effects (a priori independent) in a contrast-based approach is regularly preferred to the use of random baseline treatment effects (a priori dependent). That is because, often, there is not a need to model baseline treatment effects, which carry the risk of model misspecification.…

Intelligent tutoring systems adapt the curriculum to the needs of the individual student. Therefore, an accurate representation and prediction of student knowledge is essential. Bayesian Knowledge Tracing (BKT) is a popular approach for student modeling. The structure of BKT models, however, makes it impossible to represent the hierarchy and…

We consider an ordinal regression model with latent variables to investigate the effects of observable and latent explanatory variables on the ordinal responses of interest. Each latent variable is characterized by correlated observed variables through a confirmatory factor analysis model. We develop a Bayesian adaptive lasso procedure to conduct…

This research focuses on developing and implementing a continuous Naïve Bayesian classifier for GEAR courses at Rio Salado Community College. Previous implementation efforts of a discrete version did not predict as well, 70%, and had deployment issues. This predictive model has higher prediction, over 90%, accuracy for both at-risk and successful…

Mixture item response theory (IRT) models have been suggested as an efficient method of detecting the different response patterns derived from latent classes when developing a test. In testing situations, multiple latent traits measured by a battery of tests can exhibit a higher-order structure, and mixtures of latent classes may occur on…

Student misconceptions have been studied for decades from a curricular/instructional perspective and from the assessment/test level perspective. Numerous misconception assessment tools have been developed in order to measure students' misconceptions relative to the correct content. Often, these tools are used to make a variety of educational…

This study explored a diagnostic assessment method that emphasized the cognitive process of algebra learning. The study utilized a design and a theory-driven model to examine the content knowledge. Using the theory driven model, the thinking skills of algebra learning was also examined. A Bayesian network model was applied to represent the theory…

In this work we use prior to tutor-session data to generate an individualized student knowledge model. Intelligent learning environments use student models to individualize curriculum sequencing and help messages. Researchers decompose the learning tasks into sets of Knowledge Components (KCs) that represent individual units of knowledge; the…

Working memory (WM) is used for storing information in a highly accessible state so that other mental processes, such as reasoning, can use that information. Some WM tasks require that participants not only store information, but also reason about that information to perform optimally on the task. In this study, we used visual WM tasks that had…

Given the importance of education and the growing public demand for improving education quality under tight budget constraints, there has been an emerging movement to call for research-informed decisions in educational resource allocation. Despite the abundance of rigorous studies on the effectiveness, cost, and implementation of educational…

Growth curve models are widely used in social and behavioral sciences. However, typical growth curve models often assume that the errors are normally distributed although non-normal data may be even more common than normal data. In order to avoid possible statistical inference problems in blindly assuming normality, a general Bayesian framework is…

We show an approach to semi-automatic grading of answers given by students to open ended questions (open answers). We use both peer-evaluation and teacher evaluation. A learner is modeled by her Knowledge and her assessments quality (Judgment). The data generated by the peer- and teacher-evaluations, and by the learner models is represented by a…

Many important real-world decision-making problems involve group interactions among individuals with purely informational interactions. Such situations arise for example in jury deliberations, expert committees, medical diagnoses, etc. We model the purely informational interactions of group members, where they receive private information and act…

Interest in using Bayesian methods for estimating item response theory models has grown at a remarkable rate in recent years. This attentiveness to Bayesian estimation has also inspired a growth in available software such as WinBUGS, R packages, BMIRT, MPLUS, and SAS PROC MCMC. This article intends to provide an accessible overview of Bayesian…