The merits of double exponential smoothing are discussed relative to other types of pattern-based enrollment forecasting methods. The basic assumptions and formulas for its use are outlined. The difficulties associated with selecting an appropriate weight factor are discussed, and the potential effect on prediction results is illustrated.…

Contains a report of the application of Markov chain analysis to develop a model with analytical and predictive use for planning education for work. A flow model and the Markov chain theory are applied to data from the University of Khartoum. Advantages and limitations of the model are also listed. (CT)

In 2 studies with 85 and 88 undergraduates, respectively, peripheral nerve conduction velocity (NCV) was significantly correlated with IQ score and reaction times, and NCV and reaction time contributed significantly, in combination, to prediction of IQ. Results are interpreted in terms of a neural efficiency model of intelligence. (Author/SLD)

A key strength of latent curve analysis (LCA) is the ability to model individual variability in rates of change as a function of 1 or more explanatory variables. The measurement of time plays a critical role because the explanatory variables multiplicatively interact with time in the prediction of the repeated measures. However, this interaction…

Should one be more confident when predicting the whole (or an event based on a larger sample) from the part (or an event based on a smaller sample) than when predicting the reverse? The relevant literature on judgment under uncertainty argues that such predictions are symmetrical but that, as an empirical matter, people often fail to appreciate…

This study was designed to explore relationships between type and token frequencies and contextual position effects; specifically, the major question was whether or not vowel cluster pronunciation preferences of adult readers were more affected by frequency of occurrence than by graphemic environment. Two opposing hypotheses were tested regarding…

Efforts toward predicting reading failure have been principally directed at assessing the child's strengths and weaknesses with reference to a limited number of reading correlates under conditions dissimilar to those in which he will be later expected to perform. Because this type of readiness model does not take into consideration a number of…

The purpose of this study was to develop a theoretical model for predicting employment satisfaction one year after graduation, using 9th-12th grade inschool variables of socioeconomic status, curriculum choice, and achievement. The independent variables used were chosen from the three psychological domains: cognitive, affective, and psychomotor.…

The nationwide sales force (N=540) of a large food and beverage firm responded to a mail survey designed to investigate the role of value orientation as a moderator of the relationship between organizational rewards and job satisfaction. Of the two main elements in the investigation, the first was concerned with the predictive efficiency of two…

A selected and annotated bibliography of ERIC documents describing community college enrollment projection methods, including a demographic planning model, a modified Delphi technique, a cohort survival model, the age participation technique, and the bond program projection technique. (Author/AC)

The purposes of this study were (1) to test whether the occupational preferences of senior psychology majors could be predicted using a within-subjects analysis of Vroom's model; (2) to examine the predictive validity of valence and instrumentality measures, and (3) to compare the predictive validity of the weighted and unweighted valence models.…

Four approaches to prediction of learning success are described and discussed: the two-point model and the technique of multiple regression; the learning test model; the contingency model and the technique of time-series analysis; and the causally defined multipoint model and the technique of path analysis. (BW)

A Model predicts a student's academic performance in his first year in a particular department at a university. It uses an aggregate selection score based on aggregate results obtained at a public examination along with a measure of the student's ability in one or more specific subjects or areas relevant to the department. (LBH)

Two causal models of career development differing in inclusion or noninclusion of variables unique to the experience of the hearing impaired were compared for their ability to explain variance in career maturity, with data from 71 hearing-impaired adolescents. Results suggest neither model is more powerful in explaining career maturity variance.…

Discussion of bibliometrics focuses on methods of predicting the number of new journals carrying relevant articles in the future, using both established parametric approaches and newer empirical methods. Parametric models and empirical Bayes models are used to compare examples using previous bibliographies compiled by Bradford and Kendall. (13…