ERIC Number: EJ1422973
Record Type: Journal
Publication Date: 2024
Pages: 19
Abstractor: As Provided
ISBN: N/A
ISSN: ISSN-1536-6367
EISSN: EISSN-1536-6359
Available Date: N/A
Uncertainty in Artificial Neural Network Models: Monte-Carlo Simulations beyond the GUM Boundaries
A. M. Sadek; Fahad Al-Muhlaki
Measurement: Interdisciplinary Research and Perspectives, v22 n2 p141-159 2024
In this study, the accuracy of the artificial neural network (ANN) was assessed considering the uncertainties associated with the randomness of the data and the lack of learning. The Monte-Carlo algorithm was applied to simulate the randomness of the input variables and evaluate the output distribution. It has been shown that under certain conditions, the GUM framework for uncertainty evaluation may completely fail. The ANN modeling technique can be used as an alternative method for estimating the expectation value and evaluating the associated uncertainty. Furthermore, unlike the GUM and Monte-Carlo frameworks, the ANN models do not require mathematical expressions between the input and output variables. On the other hand, owing to the uncertainty associated with the lack of learning, the ANN model may produce unrealistic results, even if a global minimum is approached. This behavior is explained by Bayesian theory which assumes that the output values generated by various runs are normally distributed at each target. This may lead to an unrealistic output when the overall distribution of the target values has a different distribution than that presumed by Bayesian theory. To minimize this drawback, the ANN model output should be calculated from sufficiently large repeated runs with new starting values of the weights and biases.
Descriptors: Monte Carlo Methods, Accuracy, Artificial Intelligence, Guidelines, Evaluation Methods, Bayesian Statistics, Models, Simulation, Algorithms
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Publication Type: Journal Articles; Reports - Research
Education Level: N/A
Audience: N/A
Language: English
Sponsor: N/A
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Author Affiliations: N/A