Reports a solution to the problem of providing annual grade enrollment projections by use of an exponential smoothing model. (Author)

The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate a solution to the annual problem of school district grade-wise enrollment projection. From the mathematical forecasting models considered, the exponential smoothing model is chosen and criteria for its evaluation specified. The model is then applied to data from three different school districts, and the…

Personnel at the College of Lake County (CLC) developed a projections model for student enrollment that satisfies the need for information for budget projections and for planning purposes. CLC is a medium-sized suburban community college located north of Chicago. The Enrollment Management Team was asked to create a process to project enrollments…

The use of subjective probability as a theoretical model for enrollment forecasting is proposed, and the results of an application of subjective probability to enrollment forecasting at the University of Toledo are reported. Subjective probability can be used as an enrollment forecasting technique for both headcount and full-time equivalent using…

A simple and effective model for forecasting freshman enrollment during the application period is presented step by step. The model requires minimal and readily available information, uses a simple linear regression analysis on a personal computer, and provides updated monthly forecasts. (MSE)

This paper describes the application of the discrete maximum principle to the problem of the introduction of universal primary education. (Available from Plenum Publishing Corporation, 227 West 17th Street, New York, NY 10011) (Author)

A smoothing model was applied to the transition ratios of the number of university students in successive time periods. Each application was conditional on the department and year of student. The results may be applied to any level of aggregation in the institution. (Author/LBH)

This report is based on a study in which a regression model was constructed to increase accuracy in enrollment predictions. A model, known as the Modified Regression Technique (MRT), was used to examine K-12 enrollment over the past 20 years in 2 New Jersey school districts of similar size and ethnicity. To test the model's accuracy, MRT was…

This paper examines the decline in Illinois public school enrollment that began in 1971-72 and attempts to predict the likely duration and severity of the decline. Much of the paper discusses the use of two different models for calculating enrollment projections from 1974 through 1985. The grade-by-grade model formulates enrollment projections…

Technical specifications, operating procedures, and reference information for the National Center for Higher Education Management Systems' (NCHEMS) Student Flow Model (SFM) computer programs are presented. Included are narrative descriptions of the system and its modules, specific program documentation for each of the modules, system flowcharts,…

The Departmental Enrollment Projection Model (DEPM), which is based on the assumption that enrollments are essentially influenced by economic and social forces, is described. Under the model's approach, the department, rather than the institution as a whole, is seen as the focal point of both the enrollment projection and, by implication, the…

This report discusses the analysis of selected factors related to public school enrollment and describes the development of a model for projecting student enrollment using a systems analysis approach. Chapter 1 discusses the purpose of the study, the techniques employed in the study, and the organization of the report. Chapters 2 and 3 provide an…

Examples of the reports generated by the National Center for Higher Education Management Systems (NCHEMS) Student Flow Model (SFM) IA are presented. The SFM-IA is a tool for analyzing the historical movement of students between the various fields of study and student levels in an institution and for estimating the future enrollments in each field…

The use of data on longitudinal student attendance patterns to determine variances, and hence confidence bounds, on student enrollment forecasts, in addition to finding the forecasts themselves, is demonstrated. The formulation of the enrollment model based on longitudinal student attendance patterns is described step by step, presenting the…