The procedure was to isolate the component variables and then to formulate the logical and mathematical rules governing their interaction. Students were classified by age, grade, and sex; also, their entry to, movement through, and graduation from the system were examined. (Author)

This report is concerned with the development of a model for projecting the enrollments of The Pennsylvania State University by simulating the flow of students through the campuses and colleges of which the institution is composed. Because it concerns a twenty-two campus system of a single university, it not only constitutes an institutional…

This component of the project attempts to facilitate planning by furnishing models that manage cumbersome and complex data, supply an objectivity that identifies all relationships between elements of the model, and provide a quantitative model allowing for various forecasting techniques that describe the long-range impact of decisions. (Author/IRT)

A model using four categories of college applicants (enrollment deposit paid, deposit not yet paid, applicants not yet admitted, and those who have not yet applied) that allows forecasting of freshman enrollment from any point in the admission process and simulates the effects of trends and strategies on enrollment is outlined. (MSE)

This paper presents a model that uses projected pupil enrollment to estimate gross space needs and associated costs for various classifications of educational activities. The simulation consists of two linked programs, one using a version of the modified "cohort-survival" technique and the other estimating space and money necessary to…

Traditionally, the most commonly used methods of forecasting school enrollments have been those that looked to the past for a picture of the future. In restricting the forecaster to projections of past trends, the "percentage survival" technique ignores a host of current trends implicit in a changing society. A second problem with most…

An important part of the analysis of the expected effects of institutional closure is estimation of redistribution of students attending the closed school. How coefficient estimates from models of enrollment demand can be used to predict the alternative attendance choices of students enrolled at the closed school is discussed. (Author/MLW)

The model described in this report is a computer program capable of projecting population, enrollment, teacher supply (within six age classifications); and expenditures and revenues for 10 years for each intermediate unit, the State, and four residence classifications: metropolitan-center city, metropolitan-other, suburban or small community, and…

The projection of enrollment changes is vital to the planning of educational facilities. However, existing methods of projecting urban populations fall short of acceptable performance because they fail to adequately take into account residential mobility. As a starting point for improving these methods, this report develops an accounting model of…

This paper provides an overview of selected simulation models pertinent to the problems of educational facility planning. Emphasis is placed on computer simulation models partly because of the greater potential utility of computer simulation models in coming to grips with facility planning problems. The overall objective is to document the…

The Educational Simulation Model (ESM), developed by UNESCO, is designed for use at the national level for long range simulation of educational system fluctuations. The model is a set of equations which describe an educational program and the changes and flows in student enrollment in all the courses of an educational system. Thus the model is…

The material in this volume was developed for use in a series of workshops on institutional research and planning for colleges and universities. The workshop sessions made extensive use of computers. This was made possible through the use of PLANTRAN II, a computer simulation system designed to make the power of the computer available to the…

Colleges must turn to long-range enrollment planning to ensure proper academic and fiscal management. The Higher Education Finance Research Institute, with the College Board, has developed a model that will allow colleges to test the current scale and scope of their programs against regional projections of their enrollment potential during the…

This text provides educational administrators with a working knowledge of the problem-solving techniques of PERT (planning, evaluation, and review technique), Linear Programming, Queueing Theory, and Simulation. The text includes an introduction to decision-making and operations research, four chapters consisting of indepth explanations of each…

The development and application of a computerized model, designed to stimulate the nation's future educational needs and resources and the disaprities between them, are described. The results of the simulation, reported by region and by type of residential area, allow the following types of projections through 1980: (1) enrollment given…