Colleges have increasingly turned to predictive analytics to target at-risk students for additional support. Most of the predictive analytic applications in higher education are proprietary, with private companies offering little transparency about their underlying models. We address this lack of transparency by systematically comparing two…

A predictive model for the USMLE Step 1 was created based on NBME Comprehensive Basic Sciences Self-Assessment (CBSSA) exams. All second year medical students at a southwestern university from 2014-2016 took a NBME CBSSA exam under controlled testing conditions six months (January) and three months (April) prior to their Step 1. A multiple…

During the transition period between the use of exclusively old SAT® scores and the use of exclusively new SAT scores, college admission offices will be receiving both types of scores from students. Making an admission decision based on new SAT scores can be challenging at first because institutions have methods, procedures, and models based on…

The objective of this study was to validate a scale for assessment of academic projects. As a complement, we examined its predictive ability by comparing the scores of advised/corrected projects based on the model and the final scores awarded to the work by an examining panel (approximately 10 months after the project design). Results of…

This article shows that the mean and covariance structure of the predetermined autoregressive latent trajectory (ALT) model are very flexible. As a result, the shape of the modeled growth curve can be quite different from what one might expect at first glance. This is illustrated with several numerical examples that show that, for example, a…

Leadership is a multifaceted skill as it requires the alignment of body, spirit and mind (Brown & Moshavi, 2005). Furthermore, it is a combination of behavior, actions and interaction between leaders and followers. It is characterized by the leaders' decisions' ability to influence followers' performance and achievement through their…

This "Practitioner's Guide to Growth Models," commissioned by the Technical Issues in Large-Scale Assessment (TILSA) and Accountability Systems & Reporting (ASR), collaboratives of the "Council of Chief State School Officers," describes different ways to calculate student academic growth and to make judgments about the…

Building on Shulruf, Hattie and Tumen (2008), this work examines the capacity of various National Certificate in Educational Achievement (NCEA)-derived models to predict first-year performance in Biological Sciences at a New Zealand university. We compared three models: (1) the "best-80" indicator as used by several New Zealand…

The Texas Projection Measure (TPM) has grown out of the state's need to meet the requirements of No Child Left Behind (NCLB). An examination of the state's method of predicting 8th grade mathematics scores reveals that several factors have been ignored in the process of developing the model, including assumptions in its underlying statistical…

The literature on validity provides much more guidance on how to collect various kinds of validity evidence than it does on which kinds of evidence to collect in specific cases. An argument-based approach to validation redresses the balance by linking the kinds of evidence needed to validate a test-score interpretation to the details of the…

Mounting pressure in the policy arena to improve teacher productivity either by improving signals that predict teacher performance or through creating incentive contracts based on performance--has spurred two related questions: Are there important determinants of teacher productivity that are not captured by teacher credentials but that can be…

The reliability of derived measures from 4 cognitive paradigms was studied using 19 Navy enlisted men (aged between 18 and 24 years). The paradigms were: graphemic and phonemic analysis; semantic memory retrieval; lexical decision making; and letter classification. Results indicate that derived scores may have low reliability. (SLD)

Normative data reported by publishers of the California Achievement Test, the Comprehensive Tests of Basic Skills, and the SRA Assessment Survey were used to illustrate a procedure for specifying goals for Title I programs in terms of normal curve equivalent (NCE) gains. The procedure was based on the amount of growth reflected in student reading…

Arguments which suggest that improved prediction of multiple criteria can be achieved employing pattern scoring of responses, as opposed to conventional methods, are examined. Models for improving prediction of single and multiple criteria were examined. The findings are: (1) simple linear combinations of predictor variables perform as well…

The model of feedback processing proposed by R. W. Kulhavy and W. A. Stock (1989) was studied in a traditional classroom setting in which methods of assessing students' response confidence as predictors of postfeedback performance were also examined. The relationship between confidence ratings at the time of the test and confidence assessed prior…