A rudimentary description of Markov Chains is presented in order to introduce its use to describe and to predict authors' movements among subareas of the discipline of ethnomusicology. Other possible applications are suggested. (Author)

Utilizing individual data drawn from the Israel labor mobility survey and assigning workers to primary and secondary sectors on the basis of occupational prestige scores, earnings functions are estimated and compared for the two sectors. Results strongly suggest that the dual labor market hypothesis may be relevant for Israel. (Author/CT)

Should one be more confident when predicting the whole (or an event based on a larger sample) from the part (or an event based on a smaller sample) than when predicting the reverse? The relevant literature on judgment under uncertainty argues that such predictions are symmetrical but that, as an empirical matter, people often fail to appreciate…

The development of time-series revenue projections for University of Alaska Budget Request Units (BRUs) is described. Fiscal planning modes in higher education are reviewed, along with the attributes of judgmental, time-series, and causal forecasting techniques. The following six submodels comprise the necessary dimensions of the comprehensive…

This overview of both quantitative and qualitative methods of educational forecasting is introduced by a discussion of a general typology of forecasting methods. In each of the following sections, discussion follows the same general format: a number of basic approaches are identified (e.g. extrapolation, correlation, systems modelling), and each…

A model for estimating the economic value of children is presented in this report designed to assist researchers of the less developed nations in assessing: amount and distribution of children's contribution to national output; the economic benefits of health, nutrition, and schooling changes; the persistence of rural people in having large…

Increasing demands for accurate forecasts in such areas as student enrollment, energy expenditures, and facility capacity are placing new demands on the institutional researcher. A variety of forecasting models and methods are available, all to be used with caution in long-range forecasting. (Author/MSE)

The literature on validity provides much more guidance on how to collect various kinds of validity evidence than it does on which kinds of evidence to collect in specific cases. An argument-based approach to validation redresses the balance by linking the kinds of evidence needed to validate a test-score interpretation to the details of the…

Twenty-nine community characteristics were studied to determine which were statistically most useful as predictors of per-pupil Federal aid to the 169 school districts of Connecticut. Three regression models were developed using community traits as predictors of Federal aid allocations. Cross-validation of regression models to predict future…

Reviews issues of reliability (especially test-retest reliability) in newborn assessment, discusses predictive models based on newborn assessment, and presents information on modifications of the Brazelton Neonatal Behavioral Assessment Scale which may help in pursuing fruitful questions involving prediction of development. (Author/BH)

The nature and use of LISREL (LInear Structural RELationships) analysis are considered, including an examination of college students' commitment to a university. LISREL is a fairly new causal analysis technique that has broad application in the social sciences and that employs structural equation estimation. The application examined in this paper…

A methodological framework is presented for representing tradeoffs among alternative combinations of training and aiding for personnel in complex situations. In general, more highly trained people need less aid, and those with less training need more aid. Balancing training and aiding to accomplish the objectives of the system in a cost effective…

Argues that G. A. Cziko's conclusions about the inadequacy of mainstream educational research result from misunderstandings of statistical method, philosophy of science, and other topics. Perceptual control theory, which he espouses, may contribute for educational research but its potential does not result from shortcomings of mainstream…

The focus of the session summarized in this paper was on how postsecondary educational institutions can better anticipate the future of higher education by using the "alternative futures approach to planning" model. The alternative futures model processes the best available information obtainable so that plausible alternative futures in…

Directors of Research and Evaluation in school districts were surveyed about their methods in making school enrollment projections. The questionnaire covered school district size, minority enrollment, staff responsibility for performing projections, acceptable levels of accuracy, methodology used, special considerations, and use of the data. Fifty…