The objective of this paper is the design of a predictive model of students' desertion in Educational Institutions based on the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). The proposed model is based on a weighted sum of individual probabilities of desertion associated with various factors (explanatory variables) by experts in the combined use of the AHP…

Common response-time-based approaches for non-effortful response behavior (NRB) in educational achievement tests filter responses that are associated with response times below some threshold. These approaches are, however, limited in that they require a binary decision on whether a response is classified as stemming from NRB; thus ignoring…

Problem-based learning (PBL) has been widely applied as an alternative to improve learning outcomes, but it is still little studied in the context of the probability theory course. This study described how implementing the PBL model improves students' problem-solving and critical thinking skills in probability theory course and evaluates its…

Mixture models have been developed to enable detection of within-subject differences in responses and response times to psychometric test items. To enable mixture modeling of both responses and response times, a distributional assumption is needed for the within-state response time distribution. Since violations of the assumed response time…

In analyzing data from attitude surveys, it is common to consider the "don't know" responses as missing values. In this article, we present a statistical model commonly used for the analysis of responses/evaluations expressed on Likert scales and extended to take into account the presence of don't know responses. The main objective is to…

In this research, quotient strategies and their influence on decision-making in situations that involve the comparison of probabilities are analyzed. In order to achieve this, classical probability situations modeled with urns were designed. In each situation, two urns with simple extraction, involving or not proportional relationships, were…

Employing a statistical modeling inspired pedagogy is becoming a widespread practice in the statistics education community. Many have incorporated the practice of formulating conjectures in their modeling-enhanced educational designs and have reported on its benefits. We further elucidate the mechanism through which students' conjecturing may be…

Multiple choice results are inherently probabilistic outcomes, as correct responses reflect a combination of knowledge and guessing, while incorrect responses additionally reflect blunder, a confidently committed mistake. To objectively resolve knowledge from responses in an MC test structure, we evaluated probabilistic models that explicitly…

The present study aims to examine gender differential item functioning (DIF) in the reading comprehension section of a high stakes test using cognitive diagnosis models. Based on the multiple-group generalized deterministic, noisy "and" gate (MG G-DINA) model, the Wald test and likelihood ratio test are used to detect DIF. The flagged…

The Schwarz or Bayesian information criterion (BIC) is one of the most widely used tools for model comparison in social science research. The BIC, however, is not suitable for evaluating models with order constraints on the parameters of interest. This article explores two extensions of the BIC for evaluating order-constrained models, one where a…

This article aims to investigate the teaching of chance in the context of tactile models (TM) from the perspective of the Theory of Register of Semiotic Representations. In this qualitative research, we sought to identify the different types of semiotic registers and transformations (treatment and conversion), in the solutions of the tasks of the…

This study examines the development of learning designs based on Realistic Mathematics Education (RME) on the probability topic at the eighth-grade junior high school level. Probability abounds in everyday life, and the RME approach is believed to develop students' mathematical communication skills. This learning design development used the Plomp…

In learning, errors are ubiquitous and inevitable. As these errors may signal otherwise latent cognitive processes, tutors--and students alike--can greatly benefit from the information they provide. In this paper, we introduce and evaluate the Systematic Error Tracing (SET) model that identifies the possible causes of systematically observed…

In a signal detection theory (SDT) approach to multiple choice exams, examinees are viewed as choosing, for each item, the alternative that is perceived as being the most plausible, with perceived plausibility depending in part on whether or not an item is known. The SDT model is a process model and provides measures of item difficulty, item…

The present study compares the fit of two- and three-parameter logistic (2PL and 3PL) models of item response theory in the performance of preschool children on the Raven's Colored Progressive Matrices. The test of Raven is widely used for evaluating nonverbal intelligence of factor g. Studies comparing models with real data are scarce on the…