How do teachers learn about what learners already know? How do learners aid teachers by providing them with information about their background knowledge and what they find confusing? We formalize this collaborative reasoning process using a hierarchical Bayesian model of pedagogy. We then evaluate this model in two online behavioral experiments (N…

During modern general election cycles, information to forecast the electoral outcome is plentiful. So-called fundamentals like economic growth provide information early in the cycle. Trial-heat polls become informative closer to Election Day. Our model builds on (Linzer, 2013) and is implemented in Stan (Team, 2020). We improve on the estimation…

With the development in computing technology, item response theory (IRT) develops rapidly, and has become a user friendly application in psychometrics world. Limitation in classical theory is one aspect that encourages the use of IRT. In this study, the basic concept of IRT will be discussed. In addition, it will briefly review the ability…

Model evaluation -- the process of making inferences about the performance of predictive models -- is a critical component of predictive modelling research in learning analytics. We survey the state of the practice with respect to model evaluation in learning analytics, which overwhelmingly uses only naïve methods for model evaluation or…

Vanpaemel and Lee (2012) argued, and we agree, that the comparison of formal models can be facilitated by Bayesian methods. However, Bayesian methods neither precede nor supplant our proposals (Wills & Pothos, 2012), as Bayesian methods can be applied both to our proposals and to their polar opposites. Furthermore, the use of Bayesian methods to…

A new observable consequence of the property of invariant item ordering is presented, which holds under Mokken's double monotonicity model for dichotomous data. The observable consequence is an invariant ordering of the item-total regressions. Kendall's measure of concordance "W" and a weighted version of this measure are proposed as measures for…

An application of a hierarchical IRT model for items in families generated through the application of different combinations of design rules is discussed. Within the families, the items are assumed to differ only in surface features. The parameters of the model are estimated in a Bayesian framework, using a data-augmented Gibbs sampler. An obvious…

Human response time (RT) data are widely used in experimental psychology to evaluate theories of mental processing. Typically, the data constitute the times taken by a subject to react to a succession of stimuli under varying experimental conditions. Because of the sequential nature of the experiments there are trends (due to learning, fatigue,…

A new process model of the interplay between memory and judgment processes was recently suggested, assuming that retrieval fluency--that is, the speed with which objects are recognized--will determine inferences concerning such objects in a single-cue fashion. This aspect of the fluency heuristic, an extension of the recognition heuristic, has…

Multinomial processing tree models are widely used in many areas of psychology. A hierarchical extension of the model class is proposed, using a multivariate normal distribution of person-level parameters with the mean and covariance matrix to be estimated from the data. The hierarchical model allows one to take variability between persons into…

Sociologists have long used educational expectations to understand the complex mental processes underlying individuals' educational decision making. Yet, little research evaluates how students actually formulate their educational expectations. Status attainment theory asserts that students adopt their educational expectations early based on family…

A dominant theme in modeling human perceptual judgments is that sensory neural activity is summed or integrated until a critical bound is reached. Such models predict that, in general, the shape of response time distributions change across conditions, although in practice, this shape change may be subtle. An alternative view is that response time…

In studies of change in education and numerous other fields, interest often centers on how differences in the status of individuals at the start of a period of substantive interest relate to differences in subsequent change. In this article, the authors present a fully Bayesian approach to estimating three-level Hierarchical Models in which latent…

The purpose of this article is to clarify conceptions, definitions, and applications of learning and problem-solving efficiency. Conceptions of efficiency vary within the field of educational psychology, and there is little consensus as to how to define, measure, and interpret the efficiency construct. We compare three diverse models that differ…

The conference theme was "The Promise and Perils of Educational Information Systems," defined as collections of test data on knowledges, skills, interests, and attitudes maintained for the purpose of educational decision making. Topics covered were: "Longer Education: Thinner, Broader, or Higher" (Fritz Machlup); "Testing:…