Pointing out that "trend-demographic" enrollment projections ignore important economic considerations (supply and demand), the author uses a model of educational adaptation, which focuses on the educational characteristics of the active adult population and the wage of educated relative to uneducated labor, to make projections that are compared…

Summary of the discussion document, issued by the Department of Education and Science and the Scottish Education Department, that considers the implications of declining enrollment in primary and secondary schools in Britain for the pattern of higher education over the next 15 years. Policy options are explored. (Author/JMD)

The history of a higher education demand assessment program in Manitoba is outlined, beginning with a sharp dip in enrollment in 1970. A three-year project was begun with three snapshot surveys of grade 12 decision-making in February, May, and June. The second year involved two snapshots, and the third used only one. During this time, attitudes…

Because the enrollment question is central to the resolution of a number of issues facing higher education, institutions as well as jurisdictional bodies have become increasingly concerned with the determination of future student demand. However, the changing characteristics of our population indicate the need for a new and somewhat more complex…

The Educational Simulation Model (ESM), developed by UNESCO, is designed for use at the national level for long range simulation of educational system fluctuations. The model is a set of equations which describe an educational program and the changes and flows in student enrollment in all the courses of an educational system. Thus the model is…

Current college enrollments in Ontario universities and future projections are considered. It is suggested that demographic changes and educational demand are basic factors affecting university enrollment. Difficulties in analyzing participation rates are identified, including the means of calculation, interprovincial student mobility, the…

The major theme of Report Card 1 is enrollment projections. Reports in this section include: Barwick and Stafford's "Statewide Enrollment Projections for North Carolina, 1975-80"; Reiman's "Assumption-Based Model for Developing Institutional Enrollment Projections"; Rajasekhara's "Enrollment Projection," dealing with…

A small-sample exploratory investigation is reported that attempted to develop some initial insights regarding the uses of manpower and labor market data in new planning, the needs for new types and forms of data, the nature of program changes generated, and the needs for further research and development. Planning models and program change data…

A model for forecasting postsecondary enrollment, the PDEM-1, is considered, which combines the traditional with a cross-pressure impact decision-making model. The model is considered in relation to its background, assumptions, survey instrument, model conception, applicability to educational environments, and implementation difficulties. The…

The viability of Freeman's Recursive Adjustment Model as a management tool for explaining and predicting enrollments and the job market is examined using macro and micro cases. To establish a relationship between college attendance and the college job market, Freeman employed a 3-equation model to analyze the causative supply and demand…

The development of an interactive computer model at the University of Kansas and its potential to promote administrative involvement in sophisticated model development and to increase the effectiveness of institutional planning is considered. The model was developed to provide administrators a tool for analyzing the interaction of predicted…

This document presents a framework for the study of individual demand for education. It also presents an analysis of research findings and applies these findings to recent educational trends and changes in Sweden. The first chapter provides data showing that the demand for higher education in industrialized countries has increased greatly during…

The effect of enrollment level changes on the long-range future of Western Washington University are investigated. Due to the high rate of Washington state in-migration, declining enrollments are not projected for Western Washington University. The impact of managed enrollment goals was examined to help the university determine the most…

A Postsecondary Demand Survey was undertaken in 1972 to study the demand for postsecondary education in Manitoba, Canada, and to develop a system for forecasting enrollment at postsecondary institutions. The survey objective was to establish a profile of grade 12 students in 1972 to learn about their aspirations, plans, expectations after…

Papers from the 1978 conference of the North East Association for Institutional Research are presented. The theme of the conference was new responses to new demands. The conference report is divided into the following sections: five papers on planning, nine papers on marketing, five papers on communication, five papers on curricular and faculty…