Knowledge tracing aims to model and predict students' knowledge states during learning activities. Traditional methods like Bayesian Knowledge Tracing (BKT) and logistic regression have limitations in granularity and performance, while deep knowledge tracing (DKT) models often suffer from lacking transparency. This paper proposes a…

The prediction of student performance and the analysis of students' learning behaviour play an important role in enhancing online courses. By analysing a massive amount of clickstream data that captures student behaviour, educators can gain valuable insights into the factors that influence students' academic outcomes and identify areas of…

Various areas of educational research are interested in the transitions between different states--or events--in sequential data, with the goal of understanding the significance of these transitions; one notable example is affect dynamics, which aims to identify important transitions between affective states. Unfortunately, several works have…

In higher education, academic advising is crucial to students' decision-making. Data-driven models can benefit students in making informed decisions by providing insightful recommendations for completing their degrees. To suggest courses for the upcoming semester, various course recommendation models have been proposed in the literature using…

A model that maps the requisite skills, or knowledge components, to the contents of an online course is necessary to implement many adaptive learning technologies. However, developing a skill model and tagging courseware contents with individual skills can be expensive and error prone. We propose a technology to automatically identify latent…

We introduce a model which combines principles from psychometric and connectionist paradigms to allow direct Q-matrix refinement via backpropagation. We call this model dAFM, based on augmentation of the original Additive Factors Model (AFM), whose calculations and constraints we show can be exactly replicated within the framework of neural…

Effective learning outcome modeling is crucial to the success of learning evaluation in education. In the digital age, the movement towards online learning and computerized assessments has resulted in an explosion of structured and unstructured educational data (e.g., learners' problem-solving process data), which offers new opportunities for…

With the aim to provide teachers with more specific, frequent, and actionable feedback about their teaching, we explore how Large Language Models (LLMs) can be used to estimate "Instructional Support" domain scores of the CLassroom Assessment Scoring System (CLASS), a widely used observation protocol. We design a machine learning…

We propose a novel model, Wide & Deep Item Response Theory (Wide & Deep IRT), to predict the correctness of students' responses to questions using historical clickstream data. This model combines the strengths of conventional Item Response Theory (IRT) models and Wide & Deep Learning for Recommender Systems. By leveraging clickstream…

In learning, errors are ubiquitous and inevitable. As these errors may signal otherwise latent cognitive processes, tutors--and students alike--can greatly benefit from the information they provide. In this paper, we introduce and evaluate the Systematic Error Tracing (SET) model that identifies the possible causes of systematically observed…

The Big Data for Education Spoke of the NSF Northeast Big Data Innovation Hub and ETS co-sponsored an educational data mining competition in which contestants were asked to predict efficient time use on the NAEP 8th grade mathematics computer-based assessment, based on the log file of a student's actions on a prior portion of the assessment. In…

Automatic machine learning (AutoML) methods automate the time-consuming, feature-engineering process so that researchers produce accurate student models more quickly and easily. In this paper, we compare two AutoML feature engineering methods in the context of the National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) data mining competition. The…

In educational technology and learning sciences, there are multiple uses for a predictive model of whether a student will perform a task correctly or not. For example, an intelligent tutoring system may use such a model to estimate whether or not a student has mastered a skill. We analyze the significance of data recency in making such…

Researchers use many different metrics for evaluation of performance of student models. The aim of this paper is to provide an overview of commonly used metrics, to discuss properties, advantages, and disadvantages of different metrics, to summarize current practice in educational data mining, and to provide guidance for evaluation of student…

As the use of educational technology becomes more ubiquitous, an enormous amount of learning process data is being produced. Educational data mining seeks to analyze and model these data, with the ultimate goal of improving learning outcomes. The most firmly grounded and rigorous evaluation of an educational data mining discovery is whether it…