Background: Recent reviews suggest that many plausible programs are found to have at best small impacts not commensurate with their cost, and often have no detectable positive impacts at all. Even programs with initial rigorous impact evaluation (RIE) that show them to be effective often fail a second test with an expanded population or at…

Research synthesis of evaluation findings is a multistep process. An investigator identifies a research question, acquires the relevant literature, codes findings from that literature, and analyzes the coded data to estimate the average treatment effect and its distribution in a population of interest. The process of estimating the average…

Some questions about the relationship between program evaluation and forecasting are raised. Contrasting the two fields in terms of mind-set, purpose, problems, advantages, and use shows that although their modes of inquiry are indeed very different in many ways, there is interdependence between the two in several areas. (Author/JAZ)

Five causal metaphors running throughout youth employment and education programs are reviewed: (1) the functionalist economic model; (2) the institutional socialization model; (3) a psychosocial view of youth development; (4) the subcultural model; and (5) a self-determined community development vision. (Author/GK)

Cobb's Cusp Surface Analysis Program (CUSP) provides a way to estimate empirically and test a nonlinear cusp catastrophe model. A model of emotion during problem solving is used to introduce catastrophe theory modeling and is discussed in conjunction with how to run and interpret CUSP. (SLD)

The choice between experimental research or process-oriented oriented research as the only valid paradigm of evaluation research is rejected. It is argued that there is a middle ground. Suggestions are made for mixing the two approaches to suit particular research settings. (Author/GK)

Criteria for suitable research designs for use with large databases are suggested and analyzed. The advantages and disadvantages of several types of quasi-experimental designs are compared. Examples are taken from the authors' research with data from the Manitoba Health Services Commission. (Author/AL)

A sample of 459 American Evaluation Association members was surveyed about ethical challenges they encountered in evaluation work. Respondents report a wide variety of ethical conflicts, with evaluators frequently pressured to compromise their roles as scientists and the evaluation product. A framework is proposed for interpreting these findings.…

Estimates are presented for net earnings impact of the Comprehensive Employment and Training Act programs. Net impact was linked to the human capital model and estimated for numerous subgroups. The matching procedure and the use of quasiexperimental versus experimental design are also discussed. (Author/GDC)

Statistical identification of employees with unusual sick leave patterns can result in false-positive identifications. A computer simulation model was used to evaluate alternate methods of unusual sick leave detection for the New York State Department of Health. Results were used to refine identification parameters and modify supervisory…

Evaluation research, if appropriately matched to a human service program's stage of development, can help inform the decision making at each step. The developmental stages of a program, questions to be answered at each stage, and kinds of research activities pertinent to such questions are discussed. (TJH)