Comparative Judgement (CJ) aims to improve the quality of performance-based assessments by letting multiple assessors judge pairs of performances. CJ is generally associated with high levels of reliability, but there is also a large variation in reliability between assessments. This study investigates which assessment characteristics influence the…

Meta-analyses of clinical trials targeting rare events face particular challenges when the data lack adequate numbers of events for all treatment arms. Especially when the number of studies is low, standard random-effects meta-analysis methods can lead to serious distortions because of such data sparsity. To overcome this, we suggest the use of…

Motivated by our meta-analytic dataset involving survival rates after treatment for critical leg ischemia, we develop and apply a new multivariate model for the meta-analysis of study level survival data at multiple times. Our data set involves 50 studies that provide mortality rates at up to seven time points, which we model simultaneously, and…

In suspected child sexual abuse some professionals recommend multiple child interviews to increase the likelihood of disclosure or more details to improve decision-making and increase convictions. We modeled the yield of a policy of routinely conducting multiple child interviews and increased convictions. Our decision tree reflected the path of a…

This article examines the statistical determinants of risk preference. In a meta-analysis of animal risk preference (foraging birds and insects), the coefficient of variation (CV), a measure of risk per unit of return, predicts choices far better than outcome variance, the risk measure of normative models. In a meta-analysis of human risk…

This article explores the potential of Bayesian inference as a theoretical framework for describing how people evaluate hypotheses. First, it identifies a set of logically possible forms of non-Bayesian behavior. Second, it reviews existing research in a variety of areas to see whether these possibilities are ever realized. (Author/BW)

Outlines a model of decision making known to researchers in the field of behavioral decision theory (BDT) as subjective expected utility (SEU). The descriptive and predictive validity of the SEU model, probability and values assessment using SEU, and decision contexts are examined, and a 54-item reference list is provided. (JL)

An evolved form of the Edwards and Beckworth (1989) model for probability selection for Scholastic Achievement Test takers using truncated normal distributions is presented. It is shown that the arguments of Holland and Wainer are not sufficient to reject this model. (SLD)

Reports information retrieval experiments comparing the performance of a probabilistic retrieval model that incorporates interdocument links with the simpler spreading activation strategy. Results indicated that the overall improvement obtained by including hypertext links in the retrieval model was low. (30 references) (EA)

In order to meet two key objectives, enrollment managers at colleges and universities make extensive use of single equation probability models. The first objective is to generate sufficient financial resources to educate the students enrolled. The more dependent the institution is on tuition revenues, the more important is this objective. The…

Reviews research indicating that students' cognitive models hold random events to be equiprobable Examined 87 students between the ages of 15 and 17 to determine whether masking a random event using geometric figures would affect the students' view of the event as equiprobable. Results indicated that masking overcame the equiprobable bias of the…

This article shows how the methods of survival analysis (also known as event history analysis) lend themselves to the study of the timing of educational events. Using examples from teacher attrition and student dropout research, survival methods are introduced for building statistical models of the risk of event occurrence over time. (Author/SLD)

As of 2005, 15 states had adopted a broad-based merit aid program, providing a combined $1.2 billion for college students on the basis of academic qualifications. This represents a shift away from a long tradition of need-based aid at the state and federal levels. This article utilizes a Cox proportional hazards model to analyze states'…

An interdisciplinary course in problem solving, entitled "patterns of problem solving," and its unique peer program offered at the University of California, Los Angeles, are described. The emphasis in the subject matter and approach is to expose the student to the wide range of alternative problem solving techniques and to enable the…