Develops the theory for a stochastic model for the citation process in the presence of obsolescence to predict the future citation pattern of individual papers in a collection. Shows that the expected number of future citations is a linear function of the current number, interpreted as an example of a success-breeds-success phenomenon. (Author/LRW)

Discussion of bibliometrics focuses on methods of predicting the number of new journals carrying relevant articles in the future, using both established parametric approaches and newer empirical methods. Parametric models and empirical Bayes models are used to compare examples using previous bibliographies compiled by Bradford and Kendall. (13…

Describes a circulation model for academic research libraries which uses the mixed Poisson model, incorporating ageing of library materials, to predict future use of monographs and to suggest weeding procedures based on frequency of circulation. Longitudinal studies are examined and statistical details are appended. (Author/LRW)