This paper develops theory and methods for the application of the Bayesian Model II method to the estimation of binomial proportions and demonstrates its application to educational data. (Author/RK)

Evaluation is discussed as an information-gathering process. Currently popular evaluation programs are reviewed in relation to decision making and various approaches that seem to contribute to the decision utility of evaluation (e.g. classical approaches, Bayesian approaches, adaptive designs, and model-based evaluations) are described. (Author/AL)

An extension is described to a product-testing model to account for misinformation among subjects that would lead them to perform incorrectly on "pick one of two" tests. The model is applied to a data set of 367 subjects picking 1 of 2 colas. Misinformation does exist. (SLD)

The asymptotic posterior normality of latent variable distributions is established under very general and appropriate hypotheses, providing a probabilistic basis for assessing ability estimation/prediction accuracy in the long test case, as well as a first step in making the Dutch Identity conjecture rigorous. (SLD)

A Bayesian approach to sensitivity of inferences to possible outliers involves recalculating marginal posterior distributions of parameters of interest under assumptions of heavy tails. This strategy is implemented in the hierarchical model setting through Gibbs sampling, a Monte Carlo technique, and illustrated through a reanalysis of data on…

A short review of the different estimation procedures that have been used in association with the Rasch model is provided. These procedures include joint, conditional, and marginal maximum likelihood methods; Bayesian methods; minimum chi-square methods; and paired comparison estimation. A comparison of the marginal maximum likelihood estimation…

Since the primary purpose of classical testing is to rank order examinees consistently, the absolute value of the true score has been relatively unimportant. However, the major purpose of criterion referenced testing is to estimate the true capabilities of examinees to perform specific tasks. Hence, the problems of true score determination assume…

The rule space model permits measurement of cognitive skill acquisition and error diagnosis. Further discussion introduces Bayesian hypothesis testing and bug distribution. An illustration involves an artificial intelligence approach to testing fractions and arithmetic. (Author/GDC)

This paper discusses the Lens Model' approach to the analysis of subject performance in multiple-cue judgment tasks embedded in probabilistic environments. (Author/RK)

The effect of performance evaluations on expectations for future performances is studied using an extension of a Bayesian model. Whereas the model was originally limited to the cases where person C is both an actor and an observer, in the present extension these become particular cases of the model. (Author/RD)

Previous work on the mathematical and implementation details of the marginalized maximum likelihood estimation procedure is extended to encompass the marginalized Bayesian procedure for estimating item parameters of R. J. Mislevy (1986) and to communicate this procedure to users of the BILOG computer program. (SLD)

Multi-indicator growth models were formulated as special three-level hierarchical generalized linear models to analyze growth of a trait latent variable measured by ordinal items. Items are nested within a time-point, and time-points are nested within subject. These models are special because they include factor analytic structure. This model can…

An approach to simultaneous optimization of assignments of subjects to treatments followed by an end-of-mastery test is presented using the framework of Bayesian decision theory. Focus is on demonstrating how rules for the simultaneous optimization of sequences of decisions can be found. The main advantages of the simultaneous approach, compared…

Simultaneous estimation of many parameters can often be improved, sometimes dramatically so, if it is reasonable to consider one or more subsets of parameters as exchangeable members of corresponding populations. While each observation may provide limited information about the parameters it is modeled directly in terms of, it also contributes…

The testing of research hypotheses is directly comparable to the dichotomous decision-making of medical diagnosis or jury trials--not ill/ill, or innocent/guilty decisions. There are costs in both kinds of error, type I errors of falsely rejecting a null hypothesis or type II errors of falsely rejecting an alternative hypothesis. It is important…