A new computerized mastery test is described that builds on the Lewis and Sheehan procedure (sequential testlets) (1990), but uses fuzzy set decision theory to determine stopping rules and the Rasch model to calibrate items and estimate abilities. Differences between fuzzy set and Bayesian methods are illustrated through an example. (SLD)

Bayesian methods for estimating dose response curves in quantal bioassay are studied. A linearized multi-stage model is assumed for the shape of the curves. A Gibbs sampling approach with data augmentation is employed to compute the Bayes estimates. In addition, estimation of the "relative additional risk" and the "risk specific…

Three separate papers are included in this report. The first describes a two-stage procedure for choosing from among several instructional programs the one which maximizes the probability of passing the test. The second gives the exact sample sizes required to determine whether a squared multiple correlation coefficient is above or below a known…

A summary of the technical problems encountered in performing Bayesian m group regression is given. Grade-point averages for students entering a vocational-technical program are predicted using ability assessments from the Career Planning Profile (CPP), a development of The American College Testing Program (ACT). The theory derived by Lindley (see…

Bayesian statistical methodology and its possible uses in the behavioral sciences are discussed in relation to the solution of problems in both the use and teaching of fundamental statistical methods, including confidence intervals, significance tests, and sampling. The Bayesian model explains these statistical methods and offers a consistent…

A Bayesian procedure is developed for the estimation of parameters in the two-parameter logistic item response model. Joint modal estimates of the parameters are obtained and procedures for the specification of prior information are described. (Author/LMO)

The Bayesian approach to setting passing points on credentialing examinations in the health fields is considered in the context of the Normal model, and examples are given to demonstrate the procedure. An application to a credentialing examination, to determine a rational passing point, is presented. (Author/MH)

A model for student retention and attrition is presented. Focus is on alternative models for the "dampening" in attrition rates as educational programs progress. Maximum likelihood estimates for the underlying parameters in each model and a Bayesian analysis are provided. (TJH)

An approach to empirical Bayes analysis of aggregated survival data from different groups of subjects is presented based on a contingency table representation of data using transformations to permit the use of normal priors. Analysis of families of survival curves leads to improvements over classical estimates. (SLD)

This final report of a National Institute of Education project explores Bayesian statistical analysis as a paradigm for educational impact studies, particularly studies on the education of the disadvantaged. The position of the report is that much of what is wrong with educational research can be attributed to the use of an inappropriate model for…

In the methods and approaches developed for estimating the operating characteristics of the discrete item responses, the maximum likelihood estimate of the examinee based upon the "Old Test" has an important role. When Old Test does not provide a sufficient amount of test information for the upper and lower part of the ability interval,…

The use of subjective probability as a theoretical model for enrollment forecasting is proposed, and the results of an application of subjective probability to enrollment forecasting at the University of Toledo are reported. Subjective probability can be used as an enrollment forecasting technique for both headcount and full-time equivalent using…

An experimental study of the efficiency of human information processing is based on the Bayesian model for simple hypothesis testing with fixed binomial sampling. Each of 60 subjects is analyzed with separate ANOVAs focusing on two efficiency variables. Sample size and critical value are also analyzed. Subjects show very different utilization of…

The Libby-Novick class of three-parameter generalized beta distributions is shown to provide a rich class of prior distributions for the binomial model that removes some restrictions of the standard beta class. A numerical example indicates the desirability of using these wider classes of densities for binomial models. (Author/BW)

Context for the application and specialization of a Bayesian linear model is m-group regression and the application to the prediction of grade point average. Specialization involves the assumption of homogeneity of regression coefficients (but not intercepts) across groups. Model's predictive efficiency is compared with that of the full m-group…