A coherent system of decision making is described that may be incorporated into an instructional sequence to provide a supplement to the experience-based judgment of the classroom teacher. The elements of this decision process incorporate prior information such as a teacher's past experience, experimental results such as a test score, and…

Proposes a modified version of commonly employed item response models in a fully Bayesian framework and obtains inferences under the model using Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques. Demonstrates use of the model in a series of simulations and with operational data from the North Carolina Test of Computer Skills and the Test of Spoken English…

The equating of results from the PC-BILOG computer program to an underlying metric was studied through simulation when a two-parameter item response theory model was used. Results are discussed in terms of the identification problem and implications for test equating. (SLD)

The concept of consensus ordering is defined, and formulas for exact and approximate posterior probabilities for consensus ordering are developed under the assumption of a generalized Mallows' model with a diffuse conjugate prior. These methods are applied to a data set concerning 98 college students. (SLD)

A Bayes estimation procedure for Rasch-type model estimation that has statistical and computational advantages over existing methods is described. It involves constructing posterior distributions based on sample data and artificial data reflecting prior information. Its use for some Rasch-type cases, and how it can improve parameter estimation are…

A unified treatment is presented for conditions that should allow detection of measurement bias using statistical procedures involving only observed or manifest variables. Computational results demonstrate that methods for studying bias that rely exclusively on manifest variables are not generally diagnostic of the presence or absence of…

The empirical Bayes modeling approach--latent ability random sampling in the item response theory (IRT) context--to the IRT modeling of psychological tests is described. Under the usual empirical Bayes unidimensional IRT modeling approach, the posterior distribution of examinee ability given test response is approximately normal for a long test.…

In clinical trials, adaptive allocation means that the therapies assigned to the next patient or patients depend on the results obtained thus far in the trial. Although many adaptive allocation procedures have been proposed for clinical trials, few have actually used adaptive assignment, largely because classical frequentist measures of inference…

The scientific implications and practical applications of the Stein estimator approach for estimating true scores from observed scores are of potentially great importance. The conceptual complexity is not much greater than that required for more conventional regression models. The empirical Bayesian aspect allows the examiner to incorporate…

Item response curves for a set of binary responses are studied from a Bayesian viewpoint of estimating the item parameters. For the two-parameter logistic model with normally distributed ability, restricted bivariate beta priors are used to illustrate the computation of the posterior mode via the EM algorithm. (Author/LMO)

This paper aims to describe a Bayesian approach to modeling and estimating cognitive models both in terms of statistical machinery and actual instrument development. Such a method taps the knowledge of experts to provide initial estimates for the probabilistic relationships among the variables in a multivariate latent variable model and refines…

Approaches to the determination of cut-scores have used threshold, normal ogive, linear and discrete utility functions. These approaches are examined by investigating conditions on the posterior, likelihood and utility functions required for setting cut-scores in a Bayesian approach. (Author/JKS)

A modified beta binomial model is presented for use in analyzing random guessing multiple choice tests and taste tests. Detection probabilities for each item are distributed beta across the population subjects. Properties for the observable distribution of correct responses are derived. Two concepts of true score estimates are presented.…

A rational model of human categorization behavior is presented that assumes that categorization reflects the derivation of optimal estimates of the probability of unseen features of objects. A case is made that categorization behavior can be predicted from the structure of the environment. (SLD)

A flexible class of stochastic mixture models is introduced and illustrated for analysis and interpretation of individual differences in recurrent choice and other types of count data. These models are derived by specifying elements of the choice process at the individual level. An easy-to-implement algorithm is presented for parameter estimation.…