In multiple-choice items the response probability on an item may be viewed as the result of two distinct latent processes--a cognitive process to solve the problem, and another random process that leads to the choice of a certain alternative (the process of giving the actual response). An incomplete latent class model is formulated that describes…

A latent trait method is presented to investigate the possibility that Angoff or Nedelsky judges specify inconsistent probabilities in standard setting techniques for objectives-based instructional programs. It is suggested that judges frequently specify a low probability of success for an easy item but a large probability for a hard item. The…

The Mastery-Learning test model is extended. Methods for estimating prior probabilities are described. The use of an adjustment matrix to transform a probability of mastery measure and empirical methods for estimating adjustment matrix parameters are derived. Adjustment matrices are interpreted as indicators of instructional effectiveness and as…

A descriptive model of how people make judgments under ambiguity is proposed. Two factors are reflected in the model: (1) the amount of ambiguity, which affects the size of the simulation, and (2) one's attitudes toward ambiguity. The model is tested in four experiments using individual and group analyses. (Author/LMO)

This book shows the advantages of Rasch measurement (G. Rasch) for school district testing programs. The results of Rasch methods are contrasted with conventional statistics for assessing student responses to basic skills testing. Chapter 1 shows how the Rasch probability-based method produces measures that are more useful for students, parents,…

Demonstrates the use of graphing technology to help students develop and interpret three models of jury behavior and explore the potential effect of such actions as changing jury size. MathCAD, an electronic notebook was used. (Contains 10 references.) (MKR)

Procedures for obtaining student samples for the National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) and deriving survey weights for analysis of survey data are described. Sample designs are economically and operationally feasible, and weighting procedures result in increased precision of estimates as they account for the probabilities of student…

The purpose of this article is to identify the difficulty of learning materials in the network by using learner's portfolio in the asynchronous learning system. Asynchronous learning takes the advantage of information technology that records the learning portfolio of the learner. The data of the learning portfolio reflects the characteristics of…

In evaluation research studies, it often occurs that several program participants (experimentals) drop out of the program prior to completion. Since noncompleters generally differ substantially from completers in many respects, a control group which originally was representative of the participant group will most likely not be representative of…

Computer-based, criterion-referenced testing can be a humanizing process if it is used for diagnostic and remedial purposes in helping individual students to attain their maximum levels of achievement. The procedure is based upon the proposition that certain classroom situations involving cognitive acquisition, when tested at equally spaced time…

A mathematical model is proposed to describe how group differences in distributions of abilities, which are distinct from the target ability, influence the probability of a correct item response. In the multidimensional approach, differential item functioning is considered a function of the educational histories of the examinees. (SLD)

Uses the various strategies involved in baseball to illustrate basic concepts in game theory. Specifically discusses Willie Mays' base-stealing strategy and how it relates to probability and risk. Reminds students that expected results depend on adopted assumptions. (MJP)

Three of the modules deal with applications of calculus to other mathematics. These are: 240-Pi is Irrational; 241-The Wallis Approximation of Pi; and 242-Buffon's Needle Experiment. The first of these units focuses on a proof of the irrational nature of pi, and provides exercises and answers. The second module of this group reviews the history of…

The Poisson probability distribution is seen to provide a mathematical model from which useful information can be obtained in practical applications. The distribution and some situations to which it applies are studied, and ways to find answers to practical questions are noted. The unit includes exercises and a model exam, and provides answers to…

The development of a probabilistic model for validating Gange's learning hierarchies is described. Learning hierarchies are defined as paired networks of intellectual tasks arranged so that a substantial amount of positive transfer occurs from tasks in a lower position to connected ones in a higher position. This probabilistic validation technique…