This Study Guide on Contemporary Problems, Number 8, is one of a series prepared by the American Association for the Advancement of Science representing part of the 1974-75 National Science Foundation Chautauqua-Type Short Courses for College Teachers Program. This is a test edition and contains evaluation forms to be completed by the users and to…

A multiparameter, programmable model was developed to examine the interactive influence of certain parameters on the probability of deciding that an examinee had attained a specified degree of mastery. It was applied within the simulated context of performance testing of military trainees. These parameters included: (1) the number of assumed…

A computer simulation of Bayes' Theorem was conducted in order to determine the probability that an examinee was a master conditional upon his test score. The inputs were: number of mastery states assumed, test length, prior expectation of masters in the examinee population, and conditional probability of a master getting a randomly selected test…

The previous theoretical development of the Poisson process as a strong model for the true-score theory of mental tests is discussed, and additional theoretical properties of the model from the standpoint of individual examinees are developed. The paper introduces the Erlang process as a family of test theory models and shows in the context of…

The contention is made that group performance data are useful in the construction and interpretation of criterion-referenced tests. The Mastery Learning Test Model, which was developed for analyzing criterion-referenced test data, is described. An estimate of the proportion of students in an instructional group having achieved the referent…

The reliability and validity of a tailored testing procedure based on the simple logistic model was determined for an achievement test in statistics and measurement. The test was administered on a CRT terminal to students from graduate and undergraduate measurement courses. Equivalent form reliability over a one-week interval was found to be 0.595…

Two easily computed test statistics are proposed for testing the equality of two correlated proportions when some observations are missing on both responses. The performance of these tests in terms of size and power is compared with other tests by means of Monte Carlo simulations. (Author/BS)

Proposes approach to integrating Boolean and statistical systems where Boolean queries are interpreted as a means of specifying term dependencies in relevant set of documents. Highlights include series of retrieval experiments designed to test retrieval strategy based on term dependence model and relation of results to other work. (18 references)…

Discusses methods of weighting of descriptors in document search patterns together with the concept of relative indexing and conditions which should be satisfied by descriptor weight. A procedure for modifiying document search patterns based on users' informational needs and opinions is outlined, and examples are given. Sixteen references are…

Differences in the value of unemployment insurance benefits alter the extent of job search activities by current recipients, according to this study, but differences in expected value of future unemployment benefits do not appear to affect the search process of those not currently eligible for payments. (MF)

Two simulations designed to teach probability to middle-school age pupils are presented. The first simulates the one-on-one foul shot simulation in basketball; the second deals with collecting a set of six cereal box prizes by buying boxes containing one toy each. (MP)

A probabilistic item response theory (IRT) model is developed for pair-comparison design in which the unfolding principle governing the choice process uses a discriminant process analogous to Thurstone's Law of Comparative Judgment. A simulation study demonstrates the feasibility of estimation, and two examples illustrate the implications for…

Presents mathematical models to determine whether seven-game baseball playoff series are significantly fairer than five-game series. Compares the results obtained from the models to actual playoff results. (MDH)

Presents an activity to analyze the data from the Challenger explosion to help students understand the critical role of statistics in decision making and the importance of considering all available data. (MKR)

A two-parameter logistic regression model for personnel selection is proposed. The model was tested with a database of 84,808 military enlistees. The probability of job success was related directly to trait levels, addressing such topics as selection, validity generalization, employee classification, selection bias, and utility-based fair…