Discusses query formulation in information retrieval systems within the framework of adaptive linear models. User preference is emphasized, acceptable ranking strategies are described, query formulation and inductive learning are discussed, relevance feedback and probabilistic approaches are examined, and problems encountered in the design of an…

Although differential item functioning (DIF) theory traditionally focuses on the behavior of individual items in two (or a few) specific groups, in educational measurement contexts, it is often plausible to regard the set of items as a random sample from a broader category. This article presents logistic mixed models that can be used to model…

Researchers should investigate statistical models that can help counselors decide how to treat individual clients. This research investigated the questions, "Given an effect size (ES) from a counseling outcome study, what is the probability that a client would have a negative response to the treatment, and what is the probability that the client…

The PRODIGY/EBL system [Minton88] was one of the first works to directly attack the problem of strategy utility. The problem of finding effective strategies was reduced to the problem of finding effective rules. However, this paper illustrates limitations of the approach. There are two basic difficulties. The first arises from the fact that the…

Based on the game "Prisoners' Dilemma," a game-theoretical model of the arms race suitable for postsecondary level mathematics and/or political science students is developed in which two players can initially choose any level of arms development. The purpose of the game is to show under what conditions deescalation rather than escalation…

On well-constructed multiple-choice tests, the most serious threat to measurement is not variation in item discrimination, but the guessing behavior that may be adopted by some students. Ways of ameliorating the effects of guessing are discussed, especially for problems in latent trait models. A new item response model, including an item parameter…

The feasibility of using a distance measure, called the Bayesian distance, for automatic sequential document classification was studied. Results indicate that, by observing the variation of this distance measure as keywords are extracted sequentially from a document, the occurrence of noisy keywords may be detected. This property of the distance…

College teachers attending an NSF-sponsored summer workshop (1974) produced a series of films showing computer displays of mathematical problems and phenomena. These instructional materials are organized into four units: (1) functions and graphs; (2) analysis; (3) probability, statistics, and simulation; and (4) mathematical models. They are keyed…

This paper advances a model, called the expected opportunity loss model, for curriculum evaluation. This decision-making technique utilizes subjective data by ranking courses according to their expected contributions to the primary objective of the total program. The model also utilizes objective data in the form of component costs, and differs…

A basic methodological approach in developmental studies is the collection of longitudinal data. Behavioral data cen take at least two forms, qualitative (or discrete) and quantitative. Both types are fallible. Measurement errors can occur in quantitative data and measures of these are based on error variance. Qualitative or discrete data can…

Presented is the solution to the problem of calculating the probability of winning or losing a game played by moving a counter from the center of a hexagonal grid according to the number shown after the toss of a die. The exercise is an example of an interesting mathematical investigation. (MDH)

Surveys in which one can observe--after sample selection--that each sample member belongs to one or more aggregations are considered. A formula for the probability that a given aggregation contains at least one sample member is applied to eighth grade data from the National Educational Longitudinal Study of 1988 (NELS:88). (TJH)

Applies chaos theory to complex social organization, beginning with a mathematical definition of chaos. Shows how a nonlinear equation might be used to describe organization. The conclusion section identifies three approaches to analyzing chaos in social organization: metaphorical analysis, mathematical modeling, and data collection. (36…

This paper provides a method for analyzing data consisting of event sequences and covariate observations associated with Markov chains. The objective is to use the covariate data to explain differences between individuals in the transition probability matrices characterizing their sequential data. (TJH)

A general approach is proposed for modeling the structure of a two-way contingency table, and for drawing inferences about the marginal and interaction effects, cell parameters, and conditional probabilities. The prior distribution expresses uncertainty in a simple reduced model, in particular the independence model. The posterior estimates of the…