Explains a proposed block of instruction that would give students in industrial engineering, operations research, systems engineering, and applied mathematics the basic understanding required to begin more advanced courses in simulation theory or applications. (DDR)

Previous work on the mathematical and implementation details of the marginalized maximum likelihood estimation procedure is extended to encompass the marginalized Bayesian procedure for estimating item parameters of R. J. Mislevy (1986) and to communicate this procedure to users of the BILOG computer program. (SLD)

Describes a problem formulated by fourth-grade students about having more pizza for lunch, and the clarifying, predicting, modeling, simulating, comparing, and extending activities that occurred in addressing the problem from a probabilistic perspective. (MKR)

The observed probability "p" is the social scientist's primary tool for evaluating the outcome of statistical hypothesis tests. The small-sample accuracy of nonnull asymptotic distributions of several functions of "p" was studied. Implications for use of the approximations are discussed. (SLD)

Modifications are proposed to the recently developed method of comparing one-step M-estimators of location corresponding to two independent groups that provides good control over the probability of Type I error even for unequal sample size, unequal variances, and different shaped distributions. Simulation results reveal cautions required. (SLD)

A model is presented for item responses when different subjects use different strategies, but only responses--not choice of strategy--can be observed. Substantive theory is used to differentiate the likelihoods of response vectors under a fixed set of strategies, and response probabilities are modeled via item parameters for each strategy. (TJH)

Induced probabilities have been largely ignored by educational researchers. Simply stated, if a new or random variable is defined in terms of a first random variable, then induced probability is the probability or density of the new random variable that can be found by summation or integration over the appropriate domains of the original random…

Previous work on the effects of dimensionality on parameter estimation was extended from dichotomous models to the polytomous graded response (GR) model. A multidimensional GR model was developed to generate data in one-, two-, and three-dimensions, with two- and three-dimensional conditions varying in their interdimensional associations. Test…

The logit methodology provides a unique way of examining input-output relationships for social systems where the principal output of the analysis is a probability of some action or state. (Author)

Because it is a true score model employing item parameters which are independent of the examined sample, item characteristic curve theory (ICC) offers several advantages over classical measurement theory. In this paper an approach to biased item identification using ICC theory is described and applied. The ICC theory approach is attractive in that…

A probabilistic hypothesis testing procedure to assess the fit of hypothesized hierarchical structures for test item data is discussed. Statistical procedures are presented which are useful for evaluating the fit of data of a certain class of probabilistic models. These models apply to sets of dichotomous (O,1) responses for which there are…

The major advantage of sequential classification, a technique for automatically classifying documents into previously selected categories, is that the entire document need not be processed before it is classified. This method assumes the availability of a priori categories, a selection of keywords representative of these categories, and the a…

This paper will discuss the results of a series of computer simulations comparing the Rasch logistic model to a series of models departing to various degrees from its assumption of equal discrimination power for all items. The results have implications for test construction and test scoring, indicating how closely the conventional raw score…

Statistical methods that can be applied in the sequential analysis of multivariate empirical data are provided. Twenty-three specific formulas for use under varying conditions are discussed. A historical sketch of sequential analysis since World War II and a bibliography are included. (AE)

Campbell (l969) argued for the interrupted time-series experiment as a useful methodology for testing intervention effects in the social sciences. The validity of the statistical hypothesis testing of time-series, is, however, dependent upon the proper identification of the underlying stochastic nature of the data. Several types of model…