Demand for Pell Grant financial aid has become difficult to predict when using the current microsimulation model. This paper proposes an alternative model that uses aggregate data (based on individuals' microlevel decisions and macrodata on family incomes, college costs, and opportunity wages) and avoids some limitations of simple linear models.…

Data on National Direct Student Loan Program borrowers at the University of North Carolina illustrate the use of a discriminant function analysis model and an alternative model identifying characteristics of borrowers who repay and borrowers who default. The alternative model--the Tobit technique--includes data on the magnitude of the default.…

Publicly-provided grants have a significant, positive effect on high school seniors' decisions to enroll in college, particularly among lower income groups. Other types of student financial aid have no measurable effect, according to a study using a binomial logic model based on a multiperiod household utility maximization model. (PGD)

This report presents a model and an approach that institutions of higher education can use to analyze and project the impact of endogenous and exogenous factors on both net and gross tuition in the context of the increasing practice of tuition discounting. It is noted that two key questions drive this effort: (1) what influence does gross tuition…

A model for estimating the effect of public policies on the demand for higher education is presented, with attention focused on the influences of public policy and the economic environment, and the interaction of these factors with student ability and parental income. Policy instruments are tuition, admissions requirements, location of different…

The development of the error prone model (EPM) for the 1984-1985 student financial aid validation criteria for Pell Grant recipient selection is discussed, based on a comparison of the 1983-1984 EPM criteria and a newly estimated EPM. Procedures/assumptions on which the new EPM was based include: a sample of 1982-1983 Pell Grant recipients…

The development of a number of error-prone models to select Pell Grant recipients for validation is discussed. The 1983-1984 Pell Grant validation strategy consists of a two-stage approach: selection using Pre-Established Criteria (PEC) followed by selection using Error Prone Modeling (EPM). The database used for model development consists of a…

Presents a decomposition technique for a Tobit regression model that shows the effect of the independent variables on (1) the amount of financial-aid awards to those receiving aid; and (2) the probability of receiving aid for those who did not receive aid. Contributes to a clearer understanding of the effects of selected factors on awards. (20…