This paper describes an investigation looking at the underlying mathematics of poker machines. The aim of the investigation is for students to get an appreciation of how poker machines are designed to ensure that in the long-term players will inevitably lose when playing. The first part of this paper describes how students can model a simple poker…

Biomodeling is the study of the structures and behaviors of interacting biological entities such as molecules, cells, or organisms. While physical and chemical processes give rise to various spatial and temporal structures, even the simplest biological phenomenon is infinitely more complex (Kling 2004). Over the past decade, much of biomodeling…

This study considers probability models as tools for both making informal statistical inferences and building stronger conceptual connections between data and chance topics in teaching statistics. In this paper, we aim to explore pre-service mathematics teachers' use of probability models for a chance game, where the sum of two dice matters in…

This report summarises the research activities and findings from the TLRI-funded project entitled "Visualising Chance: Learning Probability Through Modelling." This exploratory study was a 2-year collaboration among two researchers, two conceptual software developers/interactive graphics experts, three university lecturers/practitioners,…

This paper presents and tests a general model to predict emergent exchange patterns and power differences in reciprocal exchange networks when individual actors follow the norm of reciprocity. With an interesting qualification, the experimental results reported here support the power-dependence approach (Emerson 1972a, b): those who acquire the…

In the nineteenth century many people tried to seek a value for the most famous irrational number, [pi], by means of an experiment known as Buffon's needle, consisting of throwing randomly a needle onto a surface ruled with straight parallel lines. Here we propose to extend this experiment in order to evaluate other irrational numbers, such as…

A complete enumeration method and a Monte Carlo method are presented to calculate the probability distribution of arbitrary statistics of adjacency matrices when these matrices have the uniform distribution conditional on given row and column sums, and possibly on a given set of structural zeros. (SLD)

The challenge of multiple comparisons is to maximize the power for answering specific research questions, while still maintaining control over the rate of Type I error. Several multiple comparison procedures have been suggested to meet this challenge. The stagewise protected procedure (SPP) of A. J. Klockars and G. R. Hancock tests null hypotheses…

A computer program is presented which simulates the classical probability machine, using Applesoft II high-resolution graphics. Many variables are left to the user's choosing. Suggestions for using the machine, understanding the problem, the mathematical model, and further program documentation are given. (MNS)

Explains a proposed block of instruction that would give students in industrial engineering, operations research, systems engineering, and applied mathematics the basic understanding required to begin more advanced courses in simulation theory or applications. (DDR)

Modifications are proposed to the recently developed method of comparing one-step M-estimators of location corresponding to two independent groups that provides good control over the probability of Type I error even for unequal sample size, unequal variances, and different shaped distributions. Simulation results reveal cautions required. (SLD)

Previous work on the effects of dimensionality on parameter estimation was extended from dichotomous models to the polytomous graded response (GR) model. A multidimensional GR model was developed to generate data in one-, two-, and three-dimensions, with two- and three-dimensional conditions varying in their interdimensional associations. Test…

Inference is considered for the marginal distribution of "X" when ("X", "Y") has a truncated bivariate normal distribution. The "Y" variable is truncated, but only the "X" values are observed. A sample of 87 Otis test scores is shown to be well described by this model. (SLD)

This paper addresses the problem of probabilistic reasoning as it applies to Truth Maintenance Systems (TMS). A computer-based Belief Maintenance System (BMS) has been constructed which manages a current set of probabilistic beliefs in much the same way that a TMS manages a set of true/false beliefs. It may be thought of as a generalization of a…

The PARallELogram Analysis (PARELLA) model is a probabilistic parallelogram model that can be used for the measurement of latent attitudes or latent preferences. A method is presented for testing for differential item functioning (DIF) for the PARELLA model using the approach of D. Thissen and others (1988). (SLD)