A research project developed a computer program for analyzing time series quasi-experimental data. The program generates a nonstationary, integrated moving average time series model; it is used to estimate a parameter which indexes the instantaneous change in level of the time series due to a predesignated treatment. The entire method is based on…

An alternative item-selection procedure for use with Owen's Bayesian adaptive testing strategy is proposed. This procedure is, by design, faster than Owen's original procedure because it searches only part of the total item pool. Item selections are, however, identical for both methods. After a conceptual development of the rapid-search procedure,…

A numerical procedure is outlined for obtaining an interval estimate of a parameter in an empirical Bayes estimation problem. The case where each observed value x has a binomial distribution, conditional on a parameter zeta, is the only case considered. For each x, the parameter estimated is the expected value of zeta given x. The main purpose is…

False-positive and false-negative dicisions are the fundamental errors committed with a mastery test; yet the estimation of the likelihood of committing these errors has not been investigated. Accordingly, two methods of estimating the likelihood of committing these errors are described and then investigated using Monte Carlo techniques.…

A computer simulation of Bayes' Theorem was conducted in order to determine the probability that an examinee was a master conditional upon his test score. The inputs were: number of mastery states assumed, test length, prior expectation of masters in the examinee population, and conditional probability of a master getting a randomly selected test…

The technical problems involved in obtaining Bayesian model estimates for the regression parameters in m similar groups are studied. The available computer programs, BPREP (BASIC), and BAYREG, both written in FORTRAN, require an amount of computer processing that does not encourage regular use. These programs are analyzed so that the performance…

This study developed a two-parameter linear probabilistic model of criterion referenced measurement, which relates an examinee's observed ability to his true ability through a guessing parameter and a carelessness parameter, both of which are probabilities. This model was applied to a survey of 10- and 14-year-old Australian students to estimate…

Bayesian estimation procedures are summarized and numerically illustrated by means of simulation methods. Procedures of data generation for simulation purposes are also delineated and computationally demonstrated. The logistic model basic to the Bayesian estimation procedures is shown to be explicit with respect to the probability distribution…

This pamphlet reprints three papers and an invited discussion of them, read at a Division 5 Symposium at the 1975 American Psychological Association Convention. The first paper describes a Bayesian tailored testing process and shows how it demonstrates the importance of using test items with high discrimination, low guessing probability, and a…

Latent trait theory supposes that, in testing situations, examinee performance on a test can be predicted (or explained) by defining examinee characteristics, referred to as traits, estimating scores for examinees on these traits and using the scores to predict or explain test performance (Lord and Novick, 1968). In view of the breakthroughs in…