Argues that informetrics needs a rigorous mathematical basis and that informetric processes can be adequately describes within a standard probabilistic framework with stochastic modeling offering a more productive approach than other methods. Highlights include Lotka's Law; robustness and multiauthorship; and resilience and the random component.…

A recently proposed stochastic model to describe the citation process in the presence of obsolescence is used to answer the question: If a paper has not been cited by a certain time after its publication, what is the probability that it will ever be cited? A proof of the theorem is appended. (Author/LRW)

Develops the theory for a stochastic model for the citation process in the presence of obsolescence to predict the future citation pattern of individual papers in a collection. Shows that the expected number of future citations is a linear function of the current number, interpreted as an example of a success-breeds-success phenomenon. (Author/LRW)

Investigates the Leimkuhler curve and the Gini index from a probabilistic viewpoint for studying the concentration of bibliometric distributions. The importance of the time parameter and the special nature of the "nonproducers" in bibliometric studies are examined, standard models of bibliometric processes are described, and further…

Describes an empirical Bayes method for predicting future use of library materials. Data from the University of Saskatchewan are used to illustrate practical applications of the model for simple prediction, prediction profiles, and prediction intervals. (21 references) (MES)

Correlation structure of the Burrell and Cane mixed Poisson model for library loans with aging is presented and illustrated by data from University of Sussex. The approach is compared and contrasted with that originally formulated by Morse and recently reevaluated by Beheshti and Tague. Directions for future investigations are suggested. (Author)

Proposes and explains a modification of the mixed Poisson model for library circulations which takes into account the periods when a book is out on loan and therefore unavailable for borrowing. Highlights include frequency of circulation distributions; negative binomial distribution; and examples of the model at two universities. (Contains 34…

Discusses the generalized inverse Gaussian-Poisson (GIGP) process for informetric modeling. Negative binomial distribution is discussed, construction of the GIGP process is explained, zero-truncated GIGP is considered, and applications of the process with journals, library circulation statistics, and database index terms are described. (50…