Because new learning technologies are enabling students to build and explore probability models, we believe that there is a need to determine the big enduring ideas that underpin probabilistic thinking and modeling. By uncovering the elements of the thinking modes of expert users of probability models we aim to provide a base for the setting of…

This article advocates biased spinners as an engaging context for statistics students. Calculating the probability of a biased spinner landing on a particular side makes valuable connections between probability and other areas of mathematics. (Contains 2 figures and 1 table.)

We represent the main stages of the process of mathematical modelling as fuzzy sets in the set of the linguistic labels of negligible, low intermediate, high and complete success by students in each of these stages and we use the total possibilistic uncertainty as a measure of students' modelling capacities. A classroom experiment is also…

In late October 1967, the USS Scorpion was lost at sea, somewhere between the Azores and Norfolk Virginia. Dr. Craven of the U.S. Navy's Special Projects Division is credited with using Bayesian Search Theory to locate the submarine. Bayesian Search Theory is a straightforward and interesting application of Bayes' theorem which involves searching…

The behavior of focus samples central to the multiple-look model of Trabasso and Bower is examined by three methods. First, exact probabilities of success conditional upon a certain brief history of stimulation are determined. Second, possible states of the organism during the experiment are defined and a transition matrix for those states…

The approaches taken to psychological research are discussed. Studies are classified as axiomatic, classical, stochastic or statistical, or structural. The mathematical models used in each type of study are discussed. (SD)

The author uses mathematical models that involve only algebra and a few basic ideas in discrete probability to describe the frequency of conception in large human societies. A number of calculations which can be done by students as exercises are given. (MN)

The probabilities of certain English football teams winning different playoffs are determined. In each case, a mathematical model is fitted to the observed data, assumptions are verified, and the calculations performed. (LS)

This report explains the following mathematical techniques which may be used for relating search requests to documents contained in a library: (1) Boolean Algebraic Retrieval, (2) Linear Statistical Retrieval, (3) Statistical Association Techniques for expanding a query and/or for expanding the set of retrieval documents, (4) Vector Space…

The mathematical derivation of the statistics used for inference in some linear models assumes that values of the independent variables are pre-selected such that these variables can be treated as fixed rather than random variables. This assumption is often disregarded when these models are utilized in research. This study is an investigation of…

Arguing that the teaching of stochastic processes should reflect the experience and reality of the student, the author urges concentration on fundamental ideas. The development of intuition should be encouraged, and to this end continuity in teaching and a spiralled curriculum are important. (SD)

The author gives a three dimensional analog of Pascal's Triangle as an exercise in heuristic thinking and an introduction to the multinomial theorem. The analog involves finding the number of shortest routes to various rooms in a cubical apartment house. (MN)

Suggests ways for using data from championship tennis as a means for exploring probabilistic models, especially binomial probability. Examples include the probability of winning a service point and the probability of winning a service game using data from tables and graphs. (AIM)

A model permitting construction of algorithms for the polynomial conjoint analysis of similarities is presented. This model, which is based on concepts used in nonmetric scaling, permits one to obtain the best approximate solution. The concepts used to construct nonmetric scaling algorithms are reviewed. Finally, examples of algorithmic models for…

This booklet, part of a series of four which provide problems in probability and statistics for the secondary school level, is aimed at aiding the student in developing models as structure for data and in learning how to change models to fit real-life problems. Twelve different problem situations arising from biology, business, English, physical…