Learning takes time: Performance usually starts poorly and improves with practice. Do children intuit this basic phenomenon of skill learning? In preregistered Experiment 1 (n = 125; 54% female; 48% White; collected 2022-2023), US 7- to 8-year-old children predicted improved performance, 5- to 6-year-old children predicted flat performance, and 4-year-old children predicted near-instant success followed by worse performance on a novel skill learning task. In preregistered Experiment 2 (n = 75; 47% female; 69% White; collected 2023), on a task with lowered cognitive demands, US 4- to 6-year-old children predicted improved performance. Thus, although children expect to improve on novel tasks, younger children need scaffolding to form these predictions and grasp this fundamental aspect of learning.