This paper illustrates a model of the layperson's reasoning patterns under conditions of uncertainty, the "outcome approach," which was developed from analysis of videotaped problem-solving interviews with 16 undergraduate students. According to the outcome approach, the goal in questions of uncertainty is to predict the outcome of an…

One of the most common misconceptions about probability is the belief that successive outcomes of a random process are not independent. This belief has been dubbed the "gambler's fallacy". The belief that non-normative expectations such as the gambler's fallacy are widely held has inspired probability and statistics instruction that attempts to…