Our objective is the estimation of voter transitions between two consecutive parliamentary elections. Usually, such analyses have been based either on individual survey data or on aggregated data. To move beyond these methods and their respective problems, we propose the application of so-called hybrid models, which combine aggregate and…

Conventional approaches for selecting a reference indicator (RI) could lead to misleading results in testing for measurement invariance (MI). Several newer quantitative methods have been available for more rigorous RI selection. However, it is still unknown how well these methods perform in terms of correctly identifying a truly invariant item to…

The health costs of in-person schooling during the pandemic, if any, fall primarily on the families of students, largely due to the fact that students significantly outnumber teachers. Data from North Carolina, Wisconsin, Australia, England, and Israel covering almost 80 million person-days in school help assess the magnitude of the fatality risks…

Teacher shortages and attrition are problems of international concern. One of the most frequent reasons for teachers leaving the profession is a lack of job satisfaction. Accordingly, in this study we have adopted a causal inference machine learning approach to identify practical interventions for improving overall levels of job satisfaction. We…

Collaborative reflection (co-reflection) plays a vital role in collaborative knowledge construction and behavior shared regulation. Although the mixed effect of online co-reflection was reported in the literature, few studies have comprehensively examined both individual and group factors and their relationships that affect the co-reflection…

Fluent conversation requires temporal organization between conversational exchanges. By performing a systematic review and Bayesian multi-level meta-analysis, we map the trajectory of infants' turn-taking abilities over the course of early development (0 to 70 months). We synthesize the evidence from 26 studies (78 estimates from 429 unique…

Previous research indicates that long-term memory (LTM) may contribute to performance in working memory (WM) tasks. Across 3 experiments, we investigated the extent to which active maintenance in WM can be replaced by relying on information stored in episodic LTM, thereby freeing capacity for additional information in WM. First, participants…

With the growing attention on large-scale educational testing and assessment, the ability to process substantial volumes of response data becomes crucial. Current estimation methods within item response theory (IRT), despite their high precision, often pose considerable computational burdens with large-scale data, leading to reduced computational…

A number of studies have found evidence for the so-called "ambiguity advantage," that is, faster processing of ambiguous sentences compared with unambiguous counterparts. While a number of proposals regarding the mechanism underlying this phenomenon have been made, the empirical evidence so far is far from unequivocal. It is compatible…

Multiple choice results are inherently probabilistic outcomes, as correct responses reflect a combination of knowledge and guessing, while incorrect responses additionally reflect blunder, a confidently committed mistake. To objectively resolve knowledge from responses in an MC test structure, we evaluated probabilistic models that explicitly…

One crucial function of a classroom, and a school more generally, is to prepare students for future learning. Students should have the capacity to learn new information and to acquire new skills. This ability to "learn" is a core competency in our rapidly changing world. But how do we measure ability to learn? And how can we measure how…

This mixed research aims to design and implement the Web Application on Bayes' Theorem (WABT) in the Statistical Instrumentation for Business subject. WABT presents the procedure to calculate the probability of Bayes' Theorem through the simulation of data about the supply of products. Technology Acceptance Model (TAM), machine learning and data…

The What Works Clearinghouse (WWC) released a report that applies two methodological approaches new to the WWC that together aim to improve researchers' understanding of how early literacy interventions may work to improve outcomes for students in grades K-3. First, this report pilots a new taxonomy developed by early literacy experts and…

This article presents a latent class model for multilevel data to identify latent subgroups and estimate heterogeneous treatment effects. Unlike sequential approaches that partition data first and then estimate average treatment effects (ATEs) within classes, we employ a Bayesian procedure to jointly estimate mixing probability, selection, and…

The Schwarz or Bayesian information criterion (BIC) is one of the most widely used tools for model comparison in social science research. The BIC, however, is not suitable for evaluating models with order constraints on the parameters of interest. This article explores two extensions of the BIC for evaluating order-constrained models, one where a…