Develops stochastic model of library borrowing using Negative Binomial distribution applied to circulation data obtained from Huddersfield Public Library. Evidence concerning process of popularity decay is presented and method is given by which relegation tests can be constructed to maintain optimum turnover. Eight references and statistical…

Utilizing 11 years of University of Saskatchewan circulation transactions, it is shown that P. M. Morse's Markov model of book use fits approximately 99 percent of data for whole collection and for three subject areas; contrary to his assumptions, one of the model's parameters is time dependent. Thirteen references are included. (EJS)