Dynamic structural equation models (DSEM) are designed for time series analysis of latent structures. Inherent to the application of DSEM is model parameter estimation, which has to be addressed in many applications by a single time series. In this context, however, the methods currently available either lack estimation quality or are…

Many low-income young people are not reaching important milestones for success (for example, completing a program or graduating from school on time). But the social-service organizations and schools that serve them often struggle to identify who is at more or less risk. These institutions often either over- or underestimate risk, missing…

This work asks one simple question: "how reliable is the method used by the National Centre for Vocational Education Research (NCVER) to estimate projected rates of VET program completion?" In other words, how well do early projections align with actual completion rates some years later? Completion rates are simple to calculate with a…

The Association Supporting Computer Users in Education (ASCUE) is a group of people interested in small college computing issues. It is a blend of people from all over the country who use computers in their teaching, academic support, and administrative support functions. ASCUE has a strong tradition of bringing its members together to pool their…

Since problems associated with the statistical methodology of educational research are becoming increasingly important, this paper examines a subset of problems associated with the analysis and interpretation of aggregated data. Two major questions arise: (1) if a researcher knows the level (e.g., individual, teacher/classroom, school, school…

Forty-seven individuals evaluated in a management assessment center in 1967 were followed up eight years later. While the validity of this specific assessment center for predicting advancement appears adequate, additional research is desirable to evaluate the ability to predict performance in management. (Author/IRT)

Data-mining technology's predictive modeling was applied to enhance the prediction of enrollment behaviors of admitted applicants at a large state university. (Contains 4 tables and 6 figures.)

Fundamental problems in the collection and use of data, in particular the need to develop and use criteria for data, are discussed. Specific examples of the use and misuse of data related to teachers and children in the public schools are presented. Two methods of data collection--manifest techniques and formal response instruments--are evaluated…

THE TOPICS OF EIGHT CONFERENCE PAPERS INCLUDE (1) THE PROBLEM OF DIFFERENTIATING EFFECTS OF SPECIFIC INSTRUCTION FROM EFFECTS OF OTHER INFLUENCES (GROWTH, ENVIRONMENT, AND SELF-INSTRUCTION), (2) CRITERIA FOR MEASURING CHANGE IN PROFICIENCY, AND (3) WAYS OF RELATING SUCH CHANGE TO OUTSIDE VARIABLES SUCH AS MEASURABLE CHARACTERISTICS OF LEARNERS AND…

This paper examines the use of environmental scanning for institutions of higher education to achieve the following objectives: (1) provide early warning of changes that will have an impact on education; (2) define potential threats and opportunities to the institution or department; (3) promote a future orientation in faculty; and (4) alert…

Support for the validity of the equipercentile assumption is presented in contrast with the conclusion of Powers, Slaughter, and Helmick (EJ 289 091). Observed "gains" from pre- to posttests are better attributed to stakeholder bias, posttests that match curriculum content too closely, or a combination of these factors. (Author/DWH)

A ratio adjustment procedure for baseline records which compares the observed response frequency with a maximum possible frequency for each observation period is described. This ratio is transformed into a response percentage with a more general predictive value for the behavior modification practitioner. (Author/RC)

It may be useful in evaluation research to employ the class as the unit of analysis, assessing its syntality by a vector of distribution cumulants or indices for each of several input tests administered. (Author)

An accurate forecast of the student demand by level on the academic departments of an institution is vital for budget and financial planning decisions, for faculty workload scheduling, and for physical facility planning. Many methods have been used to forecast this demand, ranging from "seat of your pants" guessing to highly complex…

The extent of error likely to occur with each of several approximations for the standard deviation, internal consistency reliability, and the standard error of measurement is analyzed. Approximations were compared with exact statistics obtained on 85 different classroom tests constructed and administered by professors in a variety of fields. Means…