Various classical approaches to evaluating test bias are reviewed, and their conceptual underpinnings are discussed. Bias is examined as it relates to predictive validity, rather than construct validity. One of the first test bias models was developed by T. A. Cleary (1968). Cleary's work with test bias and regression stimulated others to develop…

The development of new statistical methods of log-linear models by Leo Goodman has led to major advances in the statistical analysis of categorical data. Goodman's logit analysis, (the simplest form of log-linear models) can be applied in evaluation studies to estimate the "main effects" and "interaction effects" of categorical…

Since university enrollment forecasting is very important, many different methods and models have been proposed by researchers. Two new methods for enrollment forecasting are introduced: (1) the fuzzy time series model; and (2) the artificial neural networks model. Fuzzy time series has been proposed to deal with forecasting problems within a…

Marascuilo and Levin's (1970) notion of Type IV errors is extended, with respect to the interpretation of interactions in analysis of variance (ANOVA) designs. To help clarity what an interaction is and what it is not, in terms of the ANOVA model, the following points are made: (i) interactions should be thought of as linear contrasts involving…

It may be useful in evaluation research to employ the class as the unit of analysis, assessing its syntality by a vector of distribution cumulants or indices for each of several input tests administered. (Author)

This final report summarizes past research and suggests new approaches to the problem of estimating long-term individual constants using path analysis. The general objective of the research was to detect and measure the likelihood that one variable, x, measured at time, t, has a causal influence on another variable, y, measured at a subsequent…

Methods for predicting specific college course grades, based on small numbers of observations, were investigated. These methods use collateral information across potentially diverse institutions to obtain refined within-group parameter estimates. One method, referred to as pooled least squares with adjusted intercepts, assumes that slopes and…

An elementary survey of item characteristic curve theory, centered around the problems of individualized (tailored) testing, is presented. Following the introduction, discussions are provided of the following: Test Theory for Itemized Tests; The Guttman Scale; Item Characteristic Curve Theory; An Alternative Model; Specialization, Application, and…

Two methods of using collateral information from similar institutions to predict college freshman grade average were investigated. One central prediction model, referred to as pooled least squares with adjusted intercepts, assumes that slopes and residual variances are homogeneous across selected colleges. The second model, referred to as Bayesian…

One of the most appropriate quasiexperimental approaches to compensatory education is the regression-discontinuity design. However, it remains underutilized, in part because of the need to clarify the link between the mathematical model and administrative decision-making. This paper explains the derivation of a program efficiency index congruent…

The validity of American College Testing Program (ACT) test scores and self-reported high school grades for predicting grades in specific college freshman courses was studied. Specific course grades are typically used to place students in remedial, standard, or advanced classes. These placement decisions, in turn, have immediate implications for…