This work asks one simple question: "how reliable is the method used by the National Centre for Vocational Education Research (NCVER) to estimate projected rates of VET program completion?" In other words, how well do early projections align with actual completion rates some years later? Completion rates are simple to calculate with a…

A ratio adjustment procedure for baseline records which compares the observed response frequency with a maximum possible frequency for each observation period is described. This ratio is transformed into a response percentage with a more general predictive value for the behavior modification practitioner. (Author/RC)

Since problems associated with the statistical methodology of educational research are becoming increasingly important, this paper examines a subset of problems associated with the analysis and interpretation of aggregated data. Two major questions arise: (1) if a researcher knows the level (e.g., individual, teacher/classroom, school, school…

Fundamental problems in the collection and use of data, in particular the need to develop and use criteria for data, are discussed. Specific examples of the use and misuse of data related to teachers and children in the public schools are presented. Two methods of data collection--manifest techniques and formal response instruments--are evaluated…

The extent of error likely to occur with each of several approximations for the standard deviation, internal consistency reliability, and the standard error of measurement is analyzed. Approximations were compared with exact statistics obtained on 85 different classroom tests constructed and administered by professors in a variety of fields. Means…

This final report summarizes past research and suggests new approaches to the problem of estimating long-term individual constants using path analysis. The general objective of the research was to detect and measure the likelihood that one variable, x, measured at time, t, has a causal influence on another variable, y, measured at a subsequent…

Data-mining technology's predictive modeling was applied to enhance the prediction of enrollment behaviors of admitted applicants at a large state university. (Contains 4 tables and 6 figures.)

This paper examines the use of environmental scanning for institutions of higher education to achieve the following objectives: (1) provide early warning of changes that will have an impact on education; (2) define potential threats and opportunities to the institution or department; (3) promote a future orientation in faculty; and (4) alert…

Developed for application in Air Force weapons systems training programs, a research project investigated the methods, procedures, and data available for conducting cost and training effectiveness analyses (CTEA). The primary objective of the project was to develop a user-oriented procedure for early formulation of training programs that can be…

Training indicators are functional suites of quantitative and qualitative indicators of current or future vocational education and training (VET) supply and demand. The training indicators approach to educational planning considers indicators of present and likely future conditions for skilled labor and forms judgments about the most appropriate…