Results of empirical validation studies of six statistical models available for indirectly estimating the need for alcohol, drug abuse, and mental health services across a large geographic area are presented. Models were evaluated using Colorado Social Health Survey data for 4,745 adults from 48 subareas of Colorado. (SLD)

A synthetic method of estimating relative annual prevalence of severely mentally disabled (SMD) adults across Ohio's mental health board areas was evaluated. Indirect evidence of accuracy for the method, which relies on local catchment area data and local census data, is provided by comparison with actual SMD adult counts in federal programs. (SLD)

Six existing statistical procedures (models) for indirectly assessing the prevalence of need for alcohol, drug abuse, and mental health services across subareas of a state are described and critiqued in terms of epidemiological and statistical characteristics. Specific advantages and disadvantages are listed for each model. (SLD)