The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate in detail how the Empirical Bayes (EB) statistical estimation strategy can be applied to an important class of educational research contexts. EB methods are tailored specifically to the analysis of data with a hierarchical structure. For instance, investigators may be interested in discovering how…

Lord's Paradox is analyzed in terms of a simple mathematical model for causal inference. The resolution of Lord's Paradox from this perspective has two aspects. First, the descriptive, non-causal conclusions of the two hypothetical statisticians are both correct. They appear contradictory only because they describe quite different aspects of the…

Describes and compares eight methods of estimating the parameters of the Zipf distribution. (CLB)

The usefulness of path analysis as a means of better understanding various linear models is demonstrated. First, two linear models are presented in matrix form using linear structural relations (LISREL) notation. The two models, regression and factor analysis, are shown to be identical although the research question and data matrix to which these…

The Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) Models, often referred to as Box-Jenkins models, are regression methods for analyzing sequential dependent observations with large amounts of data. The Box-Jenkins approach, a three-stage procedure consisting of identification, estimation and diagnosis, was used to select the most appropriate…

An alternative definition has been developed of the delta scale of item difficulty used at Educational Testing Service. The traditional delta scale uses an inverse normal transformation based on normal ogive models developed years ago. However, no use is made of this fact in typical uses of item deltas. It is simply one way to make the probability…

The models and procedures discussed in this paper are related to those presented in Bock and Aitkin (1981), where they considered the 2-parameter probit model and approximated a normally distributed prior distribution of abilities by a finite and discrete distribution. One purpose of this paper is to clarify the nature of the general EM (GEM)…

This proposal attempts to follow in Allan Birnbaum's tradition by using Bayesian ideas to show that his mental test model possesses even broader applicability than previously realized. Birnbaum's two significant contributions to the theories of statistics and educational testing are: (1) the proof that the sufficiency and conditionality principles…

Methods of probability modeling to analyze rater agreement are described, emphasizing their basic similarities and viewing them as variants of a common methodology. Statistical techniques for analyzing agreement data are described to address questions such as how many opinions are required to make a medical diagnosis with necessary accuracy. Kappa…

Develops an approach for advance estimation of user charges based on information actually retrieved by searching numeric databases, and defines a method for query cardinality estimation. Based on the relational data model, which uses relational algebra, this method uses formal file descriptions to describe the database files. (LRW)

A new procedure is proposed for developing, evaluating, and implementing routing procedures for use with individualized instruction programs. An item response theory model for describing the relationship between performance on sequentially arranged units of instruction, and procedures for using the model to evaluate sequential relationships and…

Some cognitive psychologists, who have tried to approach psychometric theories, say that the psychometric approach does not provide them with theories and methods with which they can deal with differential strategies. In this paper, a general latent trait model for differential strategies in cognitive processes is proposed which includes three…

The accuracy of trait estimates obtained from three vertical equating methods was examined. The procedures studied included two anchor test designs and a single-group design. Data from two content areas and two grade combinations were studied. A three-parameter logistic model was used to perform the equatings. The results obtained were used to…

This report documents a computer program for simulation evaluation of item response theory (IRT) ability estimators. This Honeywell DPS version is a very slight modification of the program originally developed in FORTRAN-77 on a DEC VAX 11/780. The model of the world simulated by the program involves a unidimensional test in which the probability…

Using simulated item response data, the performance of several "robust" and conventional schemes for ability estimation was evaluated in conjunction with logistic item response theory models (one, two, and three parameter models). The simulated item response data were generated using a model that is more complex than are the usual…