Modeling the population in survey sampling problems continues to be controversial. An important reason is that the likelihood principle makes it somewhat necessary to model the population. Estimating the population total in two-stage survey sampling is considered, making use of a "superpopulation" model. The problem is then really one of…

Statistical significance is often misinterpreted to mean replicability or generalizability of results, although a statistically significant difference does not equal a reliable difference. Sample splitting procedures may be a more accurate way of estimating research result generalizability. This type of cross-validation involves randomly dividing…

Adaptive forms of weighted structural regression are developed and discussed. Bootstrapping studies indicate that the new methods have potential to recover known population regression weights and predict criterion score values routinely better than do ordinary least squares methods. The new methods are scale free and simple to compute. (SLD)

The dynamic factor model proposed by P. C. Molenaar (1985) is exhibited, and a dynamic nonstationary factor model (DNFM) is constructed with latent factor series that have time-varying mean functions. The use of a DNFM is illustrated using data from a television viewing habits study. (SLD)

Presents a mathematical-categorization model using multiple-step chains of reasoning (CORs) and memory for examples. In 5 experiments, 144 undergraduates memorized descriptions of fictional people, then made predictions from incomplete descriptions using 1-, 2-, or 3-step CORs. The multiple-step context model with one- and two-step inference…

Bayesian methods for estimating dose response curves in quantal bioassay are studied. A linearized multi-stage model is assumed for the shape of the curves. A Gibbs sampling approach with data augmentation is employed to compute the Bayes estimates. In addition, estimation of the "relative additional risk" and the "risk specific…

A model is proposed for investigating test validity as a predictor of a criterion variable when there are both missing and censored scores in the data set. Implications for maximum likelihood estimation are discussed, and the method is illustrated with hypothetical data sets. (SLD)

A didactic example is provided, using a Monte Carlo method, of how differential item functioning (DIF) can be eliminated (and thus better understood) when the complete latent space is used. The main source of DIF is that the matching single criterion used in some DIF procedures, Mantel Haenszel or Simultaneous Item Bias (SIBTEST), does not account…

The asymptotic posterior normality of latent variable distributions is established under very general and appropriate hypotheses, providing a probabilistic basis for assessing ability estimation/prediction accuracy in the long test case, as well as a first step in making the Dutch Identity conjecture rigorous. (SLD)

A general structural equation model for measuring residualized true change and studying patterns of true growth or decline is described. This approach allows consistent and efficient estimation of the degree of interrelationship between residualized change in a repeatedly assessed psychological construct and other variables. (SLD)

The stochastic interactive activation and competition (SIAC) model of perception is presented and tested using several data sets from previous research. The asymptotic predictions of the SIAC model are compared with those of the fuzzy logical model of perception (FLMP). Evidence favoring the FLMP is reviewed. (SLD)

Three Autoregressive Integrated Moving Averages (ARIMA) forecast procedures for Census Bureau X-11 concurrent seasonal adjustment were empirically tested. Forty time series from three Census Bureau economic divisions (business, construction, and industry) were analyzed. Forecasts were obtained from fitted seasonal ARIMA models augmented with…

Different approaches to defining suppression in multiple regression/correlation are compared, and their differences are illustrated. A test for determining the significance of a suppressor effect, which is based on the definition of suppression of W. F. Velicer, is extended to the general multiple predictor case and analysis of variance. (SLD)

In this paper, algorithms are described for obtaining the maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters in log-linear models. Modified versions of the iterative proportional fitting and Newton-Raphson algorithms are described that work on the minimal sufficient statistics rather than on the usual counts in the full contingency table. This is…

Inferential conditions in the statistical detection of measurement bias are discussed in the contexts of differential item functioning and predictive bias in educational and employment settings. It is concluded that bias measures that rely strictly on observed measures are not generally diagnostic of measurement bias or lack of bias. (SLD)