Outlines a model of decision making known to researchers in the field of behavioral decision theory (BDT) as subjective expected utility (SEU). The descriptive and predictive validity of the SEU model, probability and values assessment using SEU, and decision contexts are examined, and a 54-item reference list is provided. (JL)

Presents a theory of debate as a comparison of policy systems, a theory which satisfies the unique speech act requirements of discussing policy proposals. Describes the basic model and illustrates it by reference to the interpretation of "should" propositions and the analysis of burdens of proof. (JMF)

Suggests that when choosing one's actions in many real world contexts, bare-bone tactics work at least as well as complex statistical formulas. Also, simple strategies wring insight out of shifting environments with much greater ease than do intricate probability equations. (CCM)

The present investigation employed Kahneman and Tversky's (1973) "Cab Problem" and the "Shuttle Problem" (a modified version of the former) in two separate experiments to further examine the impact of several variables on the utilization of base-rate information, and to what extent gender is related to the utilization of…

Presents a method of solving decision problems in conditions of incomplete knowledge of the probabilities of the states of nature. It uses all available information in order to delimit the region of ignorance as closely as possible. (Author)

Decision analysis is a quantitative method that permits the systematic evaluation of the costs or benefits accruing to courses of action that might be taken in a decision problem. It entails identification of the alternative choices involved, the assignment of values (costs/benefits) for possible outcomes, and the expression of the probability of…

Research supported by the U.S. Office of Education, Contract OEC-6-10-239.

TWO BASIC NEEDS OF THE DECISIONMAKER ARE IDENTIFIED--THE NEED TO FUNCTION UNDER CONDITIONS OF PSYCHOLOGICAL CERTAINTY AND THE NEED TO BE VIGILANT AFTER THE INITIAL DECISION HAS BEEN MADE. PSYCHOLOGICAL CERTAINTY IS DETERMINED BY THE PERSON'S ASSESSMENT OF HIS ENVIRONMENT OR LIFE SPACE AND THE RESOURCES HE HAS AT HIS COMMAND, BOTH OF WHICH ARE…

The contributions made by including probability theory in the primary grade curriculum are examined with respect to the day to day living of the developing child and his preparation for later life. In particular, language and decision making, misconceptions, research and systematic thinking, occupations, and the future are discussed. (MN)

In three studies, children and adolescents were questioned about vignettes that raised issues involved with decision making, such as precedents, the role of probability, open-minded thinking, and errors of omission. Decision-making biases in children's responses were scored. Some age and group differences were found. (BC)

Investigates whether state course graduation requirements affect high-school dropout decisions, using aggregate data on dropout rates, individual data from two time periods, and aggregate data on high-school completion rates over 15 years. Results strongly suggest that state-mandated minimum course requirements cause students to drop out.…

The annual US News and World Report (USNWR) Guide to America's Best Colleges is much anticipated by both high-ability high school seniors and college and university administrators. In this paper, we use a decade of Colgate University "Admitted Student Questionnaire" surveys to estimate the influence of changes in a school's USNWR rank on…

In order to investigate the use of strategies in a game-playing computer program, "Gammon," a computer program that plays Backgammon, was developed. It focuses on the play of a given strategy, as well as the process of strategy selection, and examines the concept of strategy as an integrating and driving force in the play of a game. A…