Within the beta-binomial Bayesian framework, procedures are described for the evaluation of the kappa index of reliability on the basis of one administration of a domain-referenced test. Major factors affecting this index include cutoff score, test score variability and test length. Empirical data which substantiate some theoretical trends deduced…

Uses game theory to help practitioners make decisions about educational games, simulations, or workshops whose outcomes depend to some extent on chance. Highlights include principles for making decisions involving risk; elementary laws of probability; utility theory; and principles for making decisions involving uncertainty. (eight references)…

From a decision theoretic viewpoint, a general coefficient (delta) for tests is derived. The coefficient is applied to three kinds of decision situations. The first situation involves a true score estimated by a function of the observed score of a subject on a test (point estimation). Using the squared error loss function and Kelley's formula for…

Biases in judgment reveal some heuristics of thinking about uncertainty. Three heuristics are discussed. (Author/RH)

Bayesian statistical inference is unfamiliar to many educational evaluators. While the classical model is useful in educational research, it is not as useful in evaluation because of the need to identify solutions to practical problems based on a wide spectrum of information. The reason Bayesian analysis is effective for decision making is that it…

In this study, the graduate school admission policy at a medium-sized, state-supported university is analyzed using a combination of Bayesian and cost/benefit decision analysis techniques. (Author)

Presents a formal method for making important one-shot decisions based on an elimination process which uses sequentially acquired information and is based on a conditional belief structure. The routine updating of the structure as information accumulates is based on Dempster's rule of combination. (15 references) (EAM)

A new theory of subjective probability is presented. According to this theory, different descriptions of the same event can give rise to different judgments. Experimental evidence supporting this theory is summarized, demonstrating that the theory provides a unified treatment of a wide range of empirical findings. (SLD)

Revision-of-opinion literature has generally found subjective probability judgments to be conservative (underconfident), whereas calibration literature has generally found judgment to be overconfident. Reanalysis of three previous studies shows how such data can coexist and reveals the effects of methodology on judgment interpretations. (SLD)

The treatment of uncertainty in the business classroom has been dominated by the application of risk theory to the utility-maximization framework. Nonetheless, the relevance of the standard risk model as a positive description of economic decision making often has been called into question in theoretical work. In this article, the authors offer an…

The studies reported here asked: (a) How does receipt of outcome knowledge affect judgment? (b) How aware are people of the effects that outcome knowledge has on their perceptions? Answers to these questions will shed light on how people do learn and might better learn from history. (Author/RK)

This paper explains the concept of models, their construction, and their use. It is suggested that mathematics is a helpful tool in model construction, and that models in general are indispensable in science. Models identify variables and illustrate causal relationships among the variables. An attempt is made to classify models from the point of…

The focus of this paper is an empirical illustration of how distorted subjective probabilities for sex of next birth might influence fertility behavior. Recent models of the fertility decision-making process are provided. (Author/MA)

Approaches one aspect of the problem of applying statistical decision models to the real world'' by discussing the use of probabilistic data for decisionmaking. Argues that (1) decisionmakers have difficulty conceiving of probability distributions, (2) the concept of risk of failure'' plays a major role in choice, and (3) the format in which…