Investigated the effects of different types of risk information in a simulated decision-making task to test the predictions of protection motivation theory. College students (N=226) completed the task. Results showed outcome severity, efficacy of protection, and access to protection were related to protective decisions. (BH)

This seventh in a series of articles discussing expert system construction focuses on two ways to create a structure that determines a decision: (1) rule-based, or deductive, implementation; and (2) example-based, or inductive, implementation. Probability factors and confidence levels are discussed, and an example is given for selecting an…

Reports on conditions under which people's probability judgments are superadditive rather than subadditive. Both directions of deviation from additivity are interpreted in a common framework, in which probability judgments are often mediated by judgments of evidence. The two kinds of nonadditivity result from differences in recruitment of…

Punctuated equilibrium theory (PET) is an agenda-based theory that offers a theoretical foundation for large budget shifts. PET emphasizes that the static, incremental nature of agendas is occasionally interrupted by punctuations. These punctuations indicate shifts in priority among the agenda items, and with those agenda shifts come trade-offs.…

A point of view is presented concerning the psychological concept of subjective probability, both to study its relation to the corresponding mathematical and philosophical concepts and to provide a framework for the rigorous investigation of problems unique to psychology. In order to do this the empirical implications of axiom systems for…

Statistical procedures based on Bayesian estimation for obtaining estimates of a propensity (which would include estimates of proportions or relative frequencies) are described for the special case where the observer can only note whether the propensity exceeds or does not exceed a constant between 0 and 1. (JKS)

A stochastic judgment model (SJM) is presented as a framework for addressing issues in statement verification and probability judgment. Results of 5 experiments with 264 undergraduates support the validity of the model and provide new information that is interpreted in terms of the SJM. (SLD)

We present a theory of decision by sampling (DbS) in which, in contrast with traditional models, there are no underlying psychoeconomic scales. Instead, we assume that an attribute's subjective value is constructed from a series of binary, ordinal comparisons to a sample of attribute values drawn from memory and is its rank within the sample. We…

In the standard Iowa Gambling Task (IGT), participants have to choose repeatedly from four options. Each option is characterized by a constant gain, and by the frequency and amount of a probabilistic loss. Crone and van der Molen (2004) reported that school-aged children and even adolescents show marked deficits in IGT performance. In this study,…

Describes a psychology experiment that investigated the effect of ambiguity on human decision-making behavior. (Available from Behavioral Science, University of Louisville, P.O. Box 1055, Louisville, KY 40201; $3.50 single copy.) (JG)

The application of mathematics, especially probability theory to law and social decision theory, is discussed. (SD)

Making use of statistical analytical methods, the authors examine the systematic tendency toward disappointment that results from decision making generally and argue that such disappointment is built in structurally to the process of decision making itself. (Author/JBM)