We examined how decision makers generate and evaluate hypotheses when data are presented sequentially. In the first 2 experiments, participants learned the relationship between data and possible causes of the data in a virtual environment. Data were then presented iteratively, and participants either generated hypotheses they thought caused the…

Educators, school psychologists, and other professionals must evaluate student progress and decide to continue, modify, or terminate instructional programs to ensure student success. For this purpose, progress-monitoring data are often collected, plotted graphically, and visually analyzed. The current study evaluated the impact of three common…

Previous research has revealed that people choose to aim toward an "optimal" endpoint when faced with a movement task with externally imposed payoffs. This optimal endpoint is modeled based on the magnitude of the payoffs and the probability of hitting the different payoff regions (endpoint variability). Endpoint selection, however, has only been…

It has been shown that in certain situations losses exert a stronger effect on behavior than respective gains, and this has been commonly explained by the argument that losses are given more weight in people's decisions than respective gains. However, although much is understood about the effect of losses on cognitive processes and behavior, 2…

Individuals can partly recreate the "wisdom of crowds" within their own minds by combining nonredundant estimates they themselves have generated. Herzog and Hertwig (2009) showed that this accuracy gain could be boosted by urging people to actively think differently when generating a 2nd estimate ("dialectical bootstrapping").…

Education systems are increasingly creating rich, longitudinal data sets with frequent, and even real-time, data updates of many student measures, including daily attendance, homework submissions, and exam scores. These data sets provide an opportunity for district and school staff members to move beyond an indicators-based approach and instead…

The Traveling Salesperson Problem (TSP) is a computationally difficult combinatorial optimization problem. In spite of its relative difficulty, human solvers are able to generate close-to-optimal solutions in a close-to-linear time frame, and it has been suggested that this is due to the visual system's inherent sensitivity to certain geometric…

The ability to adjust bias, or preference for an option, allows for great behavioral flexibility. Decision bias is also important for understanding cognition as it can provide useful information about underlying cognitive processes. Previous work suggests that bias can be adjusted in 2 primary ways: by adjusting how the stimulus under…

For any density function (or probability function), there always corresponds a "cumulative distribution function" (cdf). It is a well-known mathematical fact that the cdf is more general than the density function, in the sense that for a given distribution the former may exist without the existence of the latter. Nevertheless, while the…

College decisions are often the result of a variety of influences related to student background characteristics, academic characteristics, college preferences and college aspirations. College counselors recommend that students choose a variety of schools, especially schools where the general student body matches the academic achievement of…

Although uncertainty is inherent in weather forecasts, explicit numeric uncertainty estimates are rarely included in public forecasts for fear that they will be misunderstood. Of particular concern are situations in which precautionary action is required at low probabilities, often the case with severe events. At present, a categorical weather…

The St. Petersburg game is a probabilistic thought experiment. It describes a game which seems to have infinite expected value, but which no reasonable person could be expected to pay much to play. Previous empirical work has centered around trying to find the most likely payoff that would result from playing the game n times. In this paper, we…

The paper aims at elaborating a strategy regarding students' admission at the colleges of technology in the western region of Saudi Arabia. Purposely, the study surveys the opinion of the students attending the Jeddah College of Technology (J.C.T) and reports on seven socio-economic factors, specifically, the "J.C.T. evaluation system,"…

Two studies were conducted with samples of middle and high school teachers and students to examine cross-informant agreement on the Academic Competence Evaluation Scales. Cross-informant agreement was examined using Pearson correlations and conditional probability indices. Results of Study 1 (N = 65) and Study 2 (N = 66) indicated that teacher and…

Background: The Emergency Severity Index (ESI) is an emergency department (ED) triage classification system based on estimated patient-specific resource utilization. Rules for a computerized clinical decision support (CDS) system based on a patient's chief complaint were developed and tested using a stochastic model for predicting ESI scores.…