Judging whether multiple events will co-occur is an important aspect of everyday decision making. The underlying probabilities of occurrence are usually unknown and have to be inferred from experience. Using a rigorous, quantitative model comparison, we investigate how people judge the conjunctive probabilities of multiple events to co-occur. In 2…

Although Bayesian methodology has become a powerful approach for describing uncertainty, it has largely been avoided in undergraduate statistics education. Here we demonstrate that one can present Bayes' Rule in the classroom through a hypothetical, yet realistic, legal scenario designed to spur the interests of students in introductory- and…

An approach is presented to simultaneously optimize decision rules for combinations of elementary decisions through a framework derived from Bayesian decision theory. The developed linear utility model for selection-mastery decisions was applied to a sample of 43 first year medical students to illustrate the procedure. (SLD)

A flexible class of stochastic mixture models is introduced and illustrated for analysis and interpretation of individual differences in recurrent choice and other types of count data. These models are derived by specifying elements of the choice process at the individual level. An easy-to-implement algorithm is presented for parameter estimation.…

An approach to simultaneous optimization of assignments of subjects to treatments followed by an end-of-mastery test is presented using the framework of Bayesian decision theory. Focus is on demonstrating how rules for the simultaneous optimization of sequences of decisions can be found. The main advantages of the simultaneous approach, compared…

The economic utility of the following 5 weighting methods for evaluating consumer loan applications was determined using a sample of 443 loans: (1) unit; (2) weighted application blank; (3) chi square; (4) Bayes; and (5) regression. The unit and weighted application blank procedures were the best approaches. (SLD)