To enable decision makers to become more aware of the levels of confidence that can be placed in the results of particular computerized decision models, methods for establishing confidence levels are discussed. The U.S. General Accounting Office has developed criteria and review procedures for evaluating computerized policy analysis models.…

Evaluation is discussed as an information-gathering process. Currently popular evaluation programs are reviewed in relation to decision making and various approaches that seem to contribute to the decision utility of evaluation (e.g. classical approaches, Bayesian approaches, adaptive designs, and model-based evaluations) are described. (Author/AL)

Program theory can be used to improve programs and policies. This article describes a set of techniques for complicating and simplifying program theory, referred to as conceptual and action heuristics. Methods such as analyzing metaphors, clarifying concepts, mapping, component assessment, causal modeling, and decision analysis are discussed. (JAZ)