Several researchers have called for schools to interpret universal screening results using posterior probabilities. Following this recommendation could require schools to move away from direct-route, single-measure screening unless base rates of risk fall within a narrow range. In this descriptive study, we investigated two questions surrounding…

Several researchers have called for schools to interpret universal screening results using posterior probabilities. Following this recommendation could require schools to move away from direct-route, single-measure screening unless base rates of risk fall within a narrow range. In this descriptive study, we investigated two questions surrounding…

The causal view of categories assumes that categories are represented by features and their causal relations. To study the effect of causal knowledge on categorization, researchers have used Bayesian causal models. Within that framework, categorization may be viewed as dependent on a likelihood computation (i.e., the likelihood of an exemplar with…

Sometimes we should persist to succeed. But other times it might be wiser to give up on the task at hand and focus our energy on something new. Knowing whether a task is worth the effort potentially requires multiple capacities, including sensitivity to one's own likelihood to succeed on the current problem, the associated costs with continuing to…

This paper reports on an exploratory study about probabilistic intuition in learning mathematics for decision-making. The analysis was carried out on a group of high school students in relation to their probabilistic intuition in problem-solving, after performing playful learning activities on a simulation platform specifically designed for this…

Effective undergraduate statistical education requires training using real-world data. Textbook datasets seldom match the complexities and messiness of real-world data and finding these datasets can be challenging for educators. Consulting and industrial datasets often have nondisclosure agreements. Academic datasets often require subject area…

The objective of this paper is the design of a predictive model of students' desertion in Educational Institutions based on the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). The proposed model is based on a weighted sum of individual probabilities of desertion associated with various factors (explanatory variables) by experts in the combined use of the AHP…

Though individual categorization or decision processes have been studied separately in many previous investigations, few studies have investigated how they interact by using a two-stage task of first categorizing and then deciding. To address this issue, we investigated a categorization-decision task in two experiments. In both, participants were…

Provider stigma toward people who have substance use disorders (SUDs) may be a barrier to effective treatment delivery. The purpose of this study was to measure provider stigma among healthcare professionals-in-training and determine whether stigma levels were associated with professional decision making. A sample of 240 participants were…

We explored a two-stage recognition memory paradigm in which people first make single-item "studied"/"not studied" decisions and then have a chance to correct their errors in forced-choice trials. Each forced-choice trial included one studied word ("target") and one nonstudied word ("lure") that received the…

Recent controversies have highlighted the importance of local school district governance, but little empirical evidence exists evaluating the quality of district policy makers or policies. In this paper, we take a novel approach to assessing school district decision making. We posit a model of rational decision making under uncertainty that…

Reluctance of respondents to participate in surveys has long drawn the attention of survey researchers. Yet, little is known about what drives a respondent's decision to answer the survey invitation early or late during the field period. Moreover, we still lack evidence on response timing in longitudinal surveys. That is, the questions on whether…

Popular game shows offer educators the opportunity to develop active-learning exercises that provide students with a real-world connection to analytical reasoning and methods. We describe a classroom assignment developed for quantitative business courses based on the Monty Hall Problem (MHP), a probability puzzle with ties to the long-running…

The perception ability has attained much recognition in the identification of cognitive processing and decision-making in autism spectrum disorder (ASD) individuals. However, the prior studies have subjectively worked on perception ability using conditioning paradigms that can be intolerable for ASD individuals. The present paper quantitatively…

College retention, persistence, and completion are key indicators of a successful institution, but six-year degree completion has remained stagnant in recent years (National Student Clearinghouse Research Center, 2022). Despite institutional efforts through success initiatives to keep students retained, one set of barriers to degree completion may…